新品种上市点评：胶版印刷纸上市首日点评

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental situation of offset printing paper (double - offset paper) is generally weak, with an overall oversupply in recent years, and the pressure of supply surplus will continue to be released [2]. - The short - term trend of double - offset paper futures may be volatile, and there is still a downward risk in price in the long term due to continued capacity expansion [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance on the Listing Day - On September 10th, the listing benchmark price of double - offset paper futures contracts on the Shanghai Exchange was 4,218 yuan/ton, covering contracts OP2601 - OP2608. At the close, the positions and trading volume of the double - offset paper index were 2,945 lots and 21,850 lots respectively, with the position of the main 2601 contract at 2,610 lots, showing average performance [2]. Supply - side Situation - The supply of double - offset paper is in an oversupply state, with continuous capacity expansion in cultural paper and potential peak capacity expansion in the future. There are no new short - term shutdown and maintenance plans, and some previously shut - down production lines in Shandong are planned to resume production [2]. - The cost range of double - offset paper for paper mills is between 4,000 - 5,000 yuan/ton, and the lowest market factory delivery price is 4,200 - 4,300 yuan/ton [2]. Demand - side Situation - The peak demand season for double - offset paper is from October to December in the second half of the year, with no significant support from social orders and expected overall stability. The spring semester publishing tender may be postponed to after the National Day [3]. - Considering seasonality, the price in January may have a premium compared to the current spot price, but the situation is still not optimistic due to supply - side pressure [3]. Price Trend Forecast - In the short term, the double - offset paper futures may show a volatile trend. In the medium term, attention should be paid to peak - season demand and new capacity expansion. In the long term, prices may decline due to continued capacity expansion [3].