国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250910

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is affected by the downward revision of non - farm employment, and silver shows an upward trend in the gold - silver ratio. Copper lacks a clear driving force and its price fluctuates. Zinc is in a consolidation phase, lead's price fluctuates, tin moves within a range, and aluminum and its related products also show range - bound movements. Nickel runs in a narrow range, and stainless steel prices may fluctuate due to the game between reality and expectations [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price Performance: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510 and Gold T + D increased by 0.89% and 1.12% respectively. Comex Gold 2510 rose by 1.04%. For silver, Shanghai Silver 2510 had a slight increase of 0.01%, and Comex Silver 2510 rose by 1.04% [5]. - Inventory and Position: The positions of some gold and silver contracts changed, and the inventories of Shanghai Gold and Comex Silver increased. The positions of SPDR Gold ETF remained unchanged, while the SLV Silver ETF decreased by 37 [5]. - Market News: The US non - farm annual revision was worse than expected, with a downward revision of 911,000, increasing the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. Geopolitical events such as the Israeli attack on the Hamas leadership in Qatar also affected the market [5][9]. Copper - Price and Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was flat, and the London Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.10%. Trading volumes and positions of both decreased [10]. - Inventory and Spread: Shanghai Copper inventory increased by 155 tons, and London Copper inventory decreased by 550 tons. Some spreads changed, such as the LME copper spread increasing by 3.05 [10]. - Industry News: Teck Resources postponed major growth projects in the Quebrada Blanca copper mine. China's copper ore imports from January to August increased by 7.9% year - on - year [10][12]. Zinc - Market Data: The Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 0.65%, while the London Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 0.54%. There were changes in trading volumes, positions, and spreads [13]. - Industry News: The US non - farm annual revision was worse than expected, increasing the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates [13]. Lead - Price and Market Indicators: The Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 0.21%, and the London Lead 3M electronic disk rose by 0.10%. Trading volumes decreased, and positions changed. Some spreads and import profits also changed [16]. - Industry News: The US non - farm annual revision was worse than expected, increasing the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates [16]. Tin - Price and Volume: The Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 0.65%, and the London Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.03%. Trading volumes and positions changed [19]. - Inventory and Price Spread: Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 8 tons, and London Tin inventory increased by 50 tons. Some spot prices and spreads decreased [19]. - Industry News: The US non - farm annual revision was worse than expected, and there were other geopolitical and economic events [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Performance: Aluminum prices fluctuated within a range, alumina prices may still have downward space, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. There were changes in trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventories of related products [22]. - Industry News: There were comprehensive market news such as the "stock - bond double - rise" in the US and the possible interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Market Data: Nickel runs in a narrow range, and stainless steel prices may fluctuate. There were changes in prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of related products [25]. - Industry News: There were various events such as Canada's possible suspension of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, and the environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park [25][26].