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中辉能化观点-20250910
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-10 13:10
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously Bearish [1] - L: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish Continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously Bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish Consolidation [3] - Soda Ash: Bearish Consolidation [3] 2. Core Views - Crude oil: Geopolitical factors slightly boost oil prices, but supply surplus remains the core driver, and oil prices are trending downward. [1][5][6] - LPG: The cost side is weak, and there is pressure on the upside of liquefied gas. [1][9] - L: Social inventory is slightly decreasing, and it is in a bearish consolidation phase. [1][15] - PP: Spot prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and it is in a bearish consolidation phase. [1][20] - PVC: Warehouse receipts continue to increase, and it is in a weak bottom - grinding phase. [1][25] - PX: The expectation of tight supply - demand balance is loosening, and the support from crude oil is weakening, with a cautious bearish view. [1][30] - PTA: The cost support is weakening while the supply - demand is in a tight balance, with a cautious bearish view. [2][33] - Ethylene Glycol: The cost support is weakening while the supply - demand is in a tight balance, with a cautious bearish view. [2][37] - Methanol: Supply - demand is loose, and there is port inventory accumulation. Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions on the 01 contract at low prices. [2][41] - Urea: The fundamentals remain weak, and the Indian tender price is lower than expected. Hold short positions cautiously. [2][44] - Asphalt: High valuation and a weak cost side, maintaining a bearish view. [3] - Glass: In some regions, the sales of original sheets have improved, and spot prices have increased, but terminal demand is insufficient, in a bearish consolidation phase. [3] - Soda Ash: The spot price in Shahe has decreased, and the basis has weakened. It is in a bearish consolidation phase. [3] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices rebounded and adjusted. WTI decreased by 0.32%, Brent increased by 0.56%, and SC increased by 1.51%. [5] - Basic Logic: Geopolitical factors slightly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ plans to increase production in October, and the end of the US crude oil consumption season has led to a decrease in demand - side support. [6][7] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [470 - 490] for SC. [8] LPG - Market Review: On September 9, the PG main contract closed at 4413 yuan/ton, up 0.55% month - on - month. [11] - Basic Logic: The supply - demand contradiction of liquefied gas itself is not significant, and its price is mainly pegged to the cost - side oil price. The cost side still has room to decline. [12] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4350 - 4450] for PG. [13] L - Market Review: The L01 contract closed at 7251 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. [16] - Basic Logic: North China's spot prices have slightly increased, and the basis has strengthened. Social inventory is slightly decreasing, and the demand side is strengthening. [18] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the support at the integer - level mark and try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [7200 - 7300] for L. [18] PP - Market Review: The PP01 contract closed at 6965 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. [21] - Basic Logic: Spot prices are flat, and the market is fluctuating narrowly. Supply is expected to decrease this week, while demand is increasing. [23] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low prices. Focus on the range of [6900 - 7000] for PP. [23] PVC - Market Review: The V01 contract closed at 4847 yuan/ton, down 0.9%. [26] - Basic Logic: The market is in a contango structure, and inventory accumulation pressure is high. Supply is strong, and demand is weak. [28] - Strategy Recommendation: Be cautious about chasing short positions due to low - valuation support. Focus on the range of [4750 - 4900] for PVC. [28] PX - Market Review: On September 5, the PX spot price was 6781 yuan/ton, down 123 yuan/ton. [31] - Basic Logic: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing their loads, while demand - side PTA processing fees are low, and the supply - demand tight balance is expected to loosen. [31] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions cautiously and sell call options. Focus on the range of [6700 - 6810] for PX511. [32] PTA - Market Review: On September 5, the PTA spot price in East China was 4585 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. [34] - Basic Logic: Recent device maintenance has led to a significant decline in operating loads. Future new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply - side pressure. Demand is showing signs of recovery. [35] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to the opportunity to expand PTA processing fees. Focus on the range of [4660 - 4710] for TA01. [36] Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On September 5, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4488 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton. [38] - Basic Logic: Domestic devices are slightly increasing their loads, and overseas devices have little change. Demand is improving, but the cost side is weak. [39] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to go short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4290 - 4340] for EG01. [40] Methanol - Market Review: On September 5, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2310 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton. [41] - Basic Logic: Supply - side pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is weakening. [42] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2370 - 2400] for MA01. [43] Urea - Market Review: The URO1 contract closed at 1713 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton. [44] - Basic Logic: Supply is expected to be loose, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas. The Indian tender price is lower than expected. [44] - Strategy Recommendation: Urea fluctuates within a range. Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on the 01 contract at high prices. [44] Asphalt - Basic Logic: High valuation and a weak cost side, with an overall bearish view. [3] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. [3] Glass - Basic Logic: In some regions, the sales of original sheets have improved, but terminal demand is insufficient. Supply is under pressure. [3] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see as the market fluctuates at a low level. [3] Soda Ash - Basic Logic: The spot price in Shahe has decreased, and the basis has weakened. Supply - demand remains loose. [3] - Strategy Recommendation: Go short on rebounds as the supply - demand remains in a loose pattern. [3]