四季度债券投资策略：转折之年

Market Review - The bond market in 2025 is characterized by a gap between expectations and reality, particularly regarding the anticipated "moderate easing" monetary policy that did not materialize as expected [2][12][15] - The macroeconomic narrative has shifted, with a focus on combating "involution" and promoting high-quality development, as highlighted by various government initiatives [21][25] - The economic environment remains cold, with GDP growth in the first half of 2025 recorded at 5.3%, indicating a stabilization after three consecutive quarters of improvement [15][60] Investment Strategy - The strategy emphasizes short-term positioning while engaging in long-term trading, with a focus on the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.9% [110] - The bond market is expected to experience a weak overall trend with potential for rebounds, driven by the accumulation of realistic market expectations [65][69] - The current bond market participants are increasingly unstable, with a notable rise in individual investors holding public bond funds, which increased by 3.6% to 7.6% in the first half of 2024 [82][83] Bond Market Dynamics - The yield curve has shown a widening in term spreads, with the 10-1 year government bond spread at 43 basis points and the 30-10 year spread at 28 basis points as of September 3, 2025 [71][73] - The absolute level of interest rates remains low, with credit spreads for major bond varieties at historical lows, indicating a crowded secondary market with low coupon rates [93][104] - Historical data shows that years with a flat yield curve have occurred 67% of the time since 2010, suggesting a tendency for bond markets to rise during such periods [99][100]