资产配置日报：混沌时刻-20250910

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.22, up by 4.93 points or 0.13%[1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4445.36, increasing by 9.11 points or 0.21%[1] - The China Convertible Bond Index fell to 474.40, down by 3.01 points or -0.63%[1] Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The total trading volume for the day was 2.00 trillion yuan, a decrease of 148.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day[2] - Stock ETFs experienced a net outflow of 4.2 billion yuan, while margin financing increased by 6 billion yuan[2] - The market sentiment remains cautious, with a notable reduction in trading volume indicating uncertainty among investors[5] Sector Analysis - From September 2 to 9, stock ETFs saw significant net inflows in the brokerage sector, with 4.295 billion yuan into securities ETFs and 2.627 billion yuan into brokerage ETFs[3] - The non-bank financial and metals sectors also saw inflows of 4.7 billion yuan and 3.3 billion yuan respectively, indicating a shift in investment focus[3] Technology Sector Insights - AI computing power rebounded, with Oracle projecting a 77% growth in cloud infrastructure business to reach 18 billion USD this year, significantly exceeding market expectations[4] - The market's upward movement is not solely concentrated in AI, as sectors like ice and snow tourism, and healthcare services also showed strength, indicating a diversification of investment interests[4] Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on 10-year and 30-year government bonds rose to 1.829% and 2.108% respectively, reflecting increased selling pressure in the bond market[7] - The central bank initiated a net injection of 74.9 billion yuan, shifting the funding environment towards balance[6] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts that could impact market stability[9]