债市基本面高频数据跟踪：2025年9月第1周：钢材库存压力上升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth faces challenges such as rising steel inventory pressure and weakening power plant daily consumption [1][4]. - Inflation shows that the rebound momentum of pork prices is insufficient, and oil prices have significantly declined [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth: Rising Steel Inventory Pressure 3.1.1 Production: Weakening Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has weakened marginally. On September 9, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 869,000 tons, a 5.8% decrease from September 2. On August 26, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.469 million tons, a 0.3% increase from August 19 [4][11]. - The blast furnace operating rate has significantly declined. On September 5, the national blast furnace operating rate was 80.4%, a 2.8 - percentage - point decrease from August 29; the capacity utilization rate was 85.8%, a 4.2 - percentage - point decrease from August 29. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 88.8% on September 5, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from August 29 [4][14]. - The tire operating rate has declined for two consecutive weeks. On September 4, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 59.8%, a 4.1 - percentage - point decrease from August 28; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 67.5%, a 5.3 - percentage - point decrease from August 28. The operating rate of weaving machines in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to rise. On September 4, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 91.3%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from August 28, and the operating rate of downstream weaving machines was 62.4%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from August 28 [4][16]. 3.1.2 Demand: Rising Steel Inventory Pressure - The sales volume of new houses in 30 cities has turned positive month - on - month. From September 1 - 9, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 196,000 square meters, an 11.2% increase from the same period in August, a 15.4% increase from the same period in September last year, a 20.3% decrease from the same period in September 2023, and a 38.7% decrease from the same period in September 2022. After the Shenzhen property market new policy was released on September 5, the market activity increased [4][22]. - The retail trend of the auto market is stable. In August, retail sales increased by 3% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 12% year - on - year [4][25]. - Steel prices have rebounded. On September 9, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 1.2%, 0.8%, 2.1%, and 0.2% respectively compared with September 2. However, the steel inventory pressure has increased. On September 5, the inventory of five major steel products was 1.0777 million tons, a 313,000 - ton increase from August 29 [4][30]. - Cement prices continue to decline. On September 9, the national cement price index fell 1.0% compared with September 2. The cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions fell 3.4% and 4.9% respectively, weaker than the national average [4][30]. - Glass prices have rebounded. On September 9, the active glass futures contract price was 1,199 yuan per ton, a 5.0% increase from September 2 [4][36]. - The container shipping freight index has weakly stabilized. On September 5, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% compared with August 29, and the SCFI index fell 0.04% [4][38]. 3.2 Inflation: Insufficient Rebound Momentum of Pork Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Insufficient Rebound Momentum of Pork Prices - The rebound momentum of pork prices is insufficient. On September 9, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.9 yuan per kilogram, a 0.3% increase from September 2. The month - on - month decline has narrowed [4][45]. - The agricultural product price index has steadily rebounded. On September 9, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.8% compared with September 2. By variety, eggs (up 3.4%) > vegetables (up 2.2%) > chicken (up 0.6%) > fruits (up 0.4%) > pork (up 0.3%) > beef (up 0.3%) > mutton (down 0.3%) [4][49]. 3.2.2 PPI: Significant Decline in Oil Prices - Oil prices have significantly declined. On September 9, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 66.9 and 62.6 US dollars per barrel, a 3.7% and 4.5% decrease respectively compared with September 9. Major oil - producing countries have decided to increase production, intensifying concerns about oversupply [4][52]. - Copper and aluminum prices have rebounded. On September 9, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively compared with September 2 [4][55]. - The domestic commodity index has declined month - on - month. On September 9, the Nanhua industrial products index fell 0.2% compared with September 2, and the CRB index fell 0.7% [4][56].