瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - peak and continues to decline, while there is a slight increase in agricultural fertilizer preparation in Jiangsu and Anhui. Industrial compound fertilizer may reduce short - term replenishment of raw material urea due to previous raw material reserves. Although the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate will gradually recover this week, the overall inventory of urea enterprises mainly increases. Affected by the Indian tender and export policies, urea exports are accelerating. Some enterprises' inventory decreases due to export orders, while others' inventory rises slowly due to insufficient domestic demand. The short - term inventory still has a slight upward trend, and the UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1700 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1669 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with a change of 0 - 6768; the main contract's open interest is 283,349 lots, an increase of 15,169 lots; the top 20 net open interest is - 42,479; the exchange warehouse receipts are 8897 sheets, an increase of 54 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1710 yuan/ton (unchanged), 1680 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 1670 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 1670 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 1670 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively. The main contract's basis is 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan. FOB Baltic is 400 dollars/ton (unchanged), and FOB China's main port is 415 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 62.09 million tons, an increase of 2.09 million tons; enterprise inventory is 109.5 million tons, an increase of 0.92 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 78.1%, a decrease of 4.29 percentage points; the daily output is 182,700 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. The export volume is 57 million tons, an increase of 50 million tons; the monthly output is 5,928,680 tons, a decrease of 123,400 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 33.08%, a decrease of 6.14 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 58.98%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 5.3133 million tons, an increase of 1.0921 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 28,300 tons, an increase of 300 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.1327 million tons, an increase of 37,700 tons, a 3.44% increase. As of September 4, the port inventory is 620,900 tons, an increase of 20,900 tons, a 3.48% increase. As of September 3, the production of Chinese urea enterprises has decreased, with the daily output down 10,000 tons, the capacity utilization rate down 4.29 percentage points. Some new units are under maintenance, and 3 enterprises are planned to stop production this week, with 2 - 4 stopped enterprises to resume production [2] 3.6 Tip for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]