瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SH2601 fluctuated slightly, closing at 2,576 yuan/ton. The caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 1.8% week-on-week to 84.2% last week. The alumina开工率 decreased by 1.2% week-on-week to 84.38%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 1.08% week-on-week to 87.10%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 increased by 0.9% week-on-week to 65.63%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 2.17% week-on-week to 387,800 tons last week. One set of equipment in Central China and two sets in the Northwest are scheduled for maintenance this week, which may lead to a slight decline in capacity utilization. There are many maintenance plans for chlor-alkali plants in September, and the industry's supply pressure is expected to be relieved. Some alumina enterprises have short-term elastic production, but due to the considerable industry profits, the production enthusiasm of alumina enterprises is still high. Non-aluminum demand has a seasonal increase, and some previously shut-down plants have restarted. The inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda is not large, and attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory removal rhythm. In terms of spot, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to remain stable or rise slightly in the short term. In terms of futures, the high-level of caustic soda warehouse receipts has decreased, but the fourth-quarter production capacity expectation still suppresses the futures price, and the main contract may continue to be at a discount. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2,530 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2,576 yuan/ton; the main contract open interest is 110,586 lots, an increase of 568 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is -8,561 lots, an increase of 4,574 lots; the main contract trading volume is 245,799 lots, a decrease of 16,050 lots; the closing price of the January contract is 2,576 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract is 2,670 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 940 yuan/ton. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2,718.75 yuan/ton. The basis is 143 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [1] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal is 641 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [1] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is -150 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is -200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [1] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,040 yuan/ton; the spot price of alumina is 3,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [1] 3.6 Industry News - From August 29 to September 4, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.2%, a week-on-week increase of 1.8%. As of September 4, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 387,800 tons (wet weight), a week-on-week increase of 2.17% and a year-on-year increase of 35.17% [1]