瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, it is expected that supply will be abundant, demand will stabilize, and prices will remain under pressure overall. However, there may be variables due to anti - involution speculation. It is recommended to take long positions on the soda ash main contract at low levels in the short term, while paying attention to operational risks [2]. - For glass, it is advisable to wait for the bottoming signal before making a move, and it is recommended to wait and see for now. The market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. If the domestic market follows the interest - rate cut passively, the market may see growth [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1,281 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), glass main contract closing price is 1,181 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan). Soda ash main contract position is 1,449,657 lots (down 20,863 lots), glass main contract position is 1,280,165 lots (down 7,519 lots) [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position is - 273,172 (up 49,214), glass top 20 net position is - 154,993 (up 8,546). Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 7,759 tons (down 440 tons), glass exchange warehouse receipts are 2,088 tons (down 5 tons) [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread is - 119 (unchanged), glass September - January contract spread is - 186 (down 24). Soda ash basis is - 75 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), glass basis is - 89 (up 7) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,203 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan), Central China heavy soda ash is 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged). East China light soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged), Central China light soda ash is 1,200 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1,096 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), Central China glass sheets are 1,110 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 86.22% (up 3.75 percentage points), float glass enterprise operating rate is 76.01% (up 0.33 percentage points) [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.96 million tons/year (unchanged), glass in - production production lines are 225 (up 1). Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.8231 million tons (up 0.1 million tons), glass enterprise inventory is 63,050,000 weight boxes (up 484,000 weight boxes) [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative value of new real - estate construction area is 35,206 million square meters (up 4,841.68 million square meters), cumulative value of real - estate completion area is 25,034 million square meters (up 2,467.39 million square meters) [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Henan Haohua Junhua's soda ash plant resumed production with stable prices; Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang's soda ash plant reduced production; Chongqing Heyou Industry's 400,000 - ton/year soda ash plant reduced operation; Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 - million - ton/year soda ash plant reduced operation to about 70% capacity; Shandong Haitian Bio - Chemical's 1.5 - million - ton/year soda ash plant operated at about 70% capacity; Shandong Haihua's 3 - million - ton/year soda ash plant reduced operation; Guangdong Southern Alkali's 600,000 - ton/year soda ash plant operated at about 80% capacity; Anhui Huainan Alkali Plant's plant was under maintenance with a delayed start - up; Sichuan - Chongqing soda ash market was stable, and supply was expected to increase with plant resumption [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is expected to be abundant, demand will stabilize, prices will be under pressure, but there may be variables due to anti - involution speculation. The short - term fundamental suppression still exists, and attention should be paid to capacity maintenance [2]. - Glass: Supply and demand are both at a low level. The market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. The growth of the automobile industry has weakened, and the probability of interest - rate cut is rising [2].