Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-10 09:01Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with limited price increases and high terminal transaction pressure. It is expected that the price will weaken, which will suppress the demand for polysilicon. The polysilicon market is expected to continue to adjust next week, and there is a greater possibility of a short - term downward trend due to fundamental factors. The report suggests to wait and see or consider laying out put options [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 52,885 yuan/ton, down 635 yuan; the open interest is 137,072 lots, down 5,908 lots; the 11 - 12 spread is - 2,425 yuan, down 145 yuan; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 44,220 yuan/ton, down 890 yuan [2]. - Spot Market: The spot price of polysilicon is 51,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis is - 1,920 yuan/ton, up 2,140 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.2 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average prices of cauliflower, dense, and re - feeding materials are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. - Upstream (Industrial Silicon): The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 8,665 yuan/ton, up 255 yuan; the spot price is 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; monthly output is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. - Polysilicon Industry: Monthly polysilicon output is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; monthly import volume is 1,170 tons, up 57 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.76 US dollars/kg, up 0.14 US dollars; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2]. - Downstream: Monthly solar cell output is 6.6382 million kilowatts, down 100,400 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB; monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 110,432,680 units, up 21,456,820 units; monthly import volume is 14,525,650 units, up 3,429,750 units; the monthly average import price is 0.29 US dollars/unit, down 0.02 US dollars; the photovoltaic industry comprehensive price index (SPI) for polysilicon is 29.72, up 0.62 [2]. 3.2 Industry News - On September 9 after the market, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced an adjustment to the trading fee standards and trading limits for certain industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts. Starting from September 11, the trading fee for the polysilicon futures PS2511 contract will be adjusted to 0.015% of the trading volume, and the same for intraday closing positions [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: The weekly output of polysilicon is increasing, and the inventory has decreased slightly this week. However, due to industry anti - involution, the subsequent increase is expected to be limited [2]. - Demand: The price of silicon wafers is stable, and some enterprises have raised prices, but downstream buyers are hesitant. The weak terminal demand is gradually affecting the market [2].