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瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250910

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase next week, with significant growth in the Southwest region due to the resumption of production during the wet season, while production in Xinjiang remains relatively stable [2]. - The overall demand from the three major downstream industries for industrial silicon remains flat. The organic silicon market is declining, reducing the expected increase in production and negatively impacting the demand for industrial silicon. The polysilicon industry is expected to significantly increase production in August, increasing the demand for industrial silicon, but the long - term demand for photovoltaic industry may shrink, limiting the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon. The aluminum alloy industry has stable production but limited demand for industrial silicon [2]. - The industry inventory is still at a high level, and although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces pressure. The industrial silicon market is still weak, and it is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions if the price falls below 8,200 yuan [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,665 yuan/ton, up 255 yuan; the position of the main contract is 278,065 lots, down 7,975 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 73,146 lots, up 6,013 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 49,955 lots, up 33 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is 160 yuan, down 20 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 435 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,020 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of silicone DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.2 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,908.89 tons, down 861.29 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC is 70.59%, unchanged; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.536 million tons, down 133,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - On the evening of September 9, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced an adjustment to the trading commission standards and trading limits for relevant contracts of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. Starting from the trading session on September 11, the trading commission standard for the polysilicon futures PS2511 contract will be adjusted to 0.015% of the trading volume, and the intraday closing commission standard will also be adjusted to 0.015% of the trading volume [2]. - From January to July, the total operating income of national state - owned and state - holding enterprises was flat compared with the same period last year, and the total profit decreased by 3.3% year - on - year [2].