Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-10 09:00Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of live pigs faces pressure as the farming sector gradually resumes the rhythm of live - pig sales, September corresponds to the peak of the previous increase cycle of the breeding sow inventory, and the number of newborn piglets six months ago has increased. The planned monthly sales volume in September has increased compared to the previous month according to Mysteel data. On the demand side, the temperature has dropped in the north, leading to a slight recovery in demand and a continuous increase in the slaughterhouse operation rate, but the overall boosting effect is limited. In general, with the increase in live - pig sales from the farming sector and limited demand growth, the live - pig price is under pressure. Technically, due to short - covering, the live - pig 2511 contract rebounded slightly for technical adjustment, but the trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to mainly conduct short - selling transactions on rebounds [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 13,315 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 85 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 75,719 lots, a decrease of 2,241 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 428 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14,964 lots, an increase of 367 lots [2]. Spot Market - The live - pig prices in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu are 13,400 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan), 13,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 14,100 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively; the main live - pig basis is 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly live - pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, an increase of 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0420,000 heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads [2]. Industry Situation - The year - on - year change of CPI is - 0.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,030 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,367.45 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 911.05, a decrease of 5.78; the monthly output of feed is 28,273,000 tons, a decrease of 1,104,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,625 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 126.24 yuan/head, an increase of 22.17 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is 52.65 yuan/head, an increase of 20.41 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live - pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,1660,000 heads, an increase of 1600,000 heads; the monthly catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail sales is 450.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.35 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - On September 10, 2025, the daily live - pig sales volume of key farming enterprises nationwide was 277,657 heads, a 7.43% increase from the previous day. The live - pig 2511 contract closed up 0.64% on Wednesday [2]. Key Points of Attention - Today, there is no new news. With the increase in live - pig sales from the farming sector and limited demand growth, the live - pig price is under pressure in a weak supply - demand situation. Technically, due to short - covering, the live - pig 2511 contract rebounded slightly for technical adjustment, but the trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to mainly conduct short - selling transactions on rebounds [2].