瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250910

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends going long on Shanghai lead futures at low prices [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decrease while demand gradually increases, and combined with market expectations of a Fed rate cut, lead prices are expected to be supported [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,795 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,977 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars [3] - The spread between the September - October contracts of Shanghai lead was - 35 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest was 89,999 lots, up 3,876 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 1,759 lots, up 1,168 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt was 53,689 tons, down 131 tons [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 66,834 tons, up 2,162 tons; the LME lead inventory was 239,325 tons, down 3,800 tons [3] - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 16,880 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [3] 现货市场 - The basis of the lead main contract was - 95 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 48.13 dollars/ton, down 4.77 dollars [3] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,254 yuan, up 34 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,660 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan [3] - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [3] - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 78.2%, unchanged; the weekly output of primary lead was 37,100 tons, unchanged [3] - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons [3] - The ILZSG global lead mine output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate was 400 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [3] - The monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,108.93 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41.45 million pieces, down 425,000 pieces; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) was 19,900 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [3] - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells was 2,208.67 points, up 87.22 points; the monthly automobile production was 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles [3] - The monthly new - energy vehicle production was 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [3] Industry News - The US Supreme Court will hear Trump's tariff appeal case, with the debate scheduled for early November [3] - Macron appointed Defense Minister Lecornu as the French Prime Minister [3] - Sources said the Bank of Japan may slightly reduce its purchases of ultra - long - term Japanese government bonds in Q4 [3] - Trump said trade negotiations with India are ongoing and he will talk to Modi in the coming weeks [3] - NVIDIA released the Rubin CPX chip for ultra - long context inference, expected to be shipped in 2026 [3] - US employment data was significantly revised downward, with 911,000 jobs revised down in the 12 months up to March [3] - Nepal saw large - scale protests, with curfews declared in many places, and Prime Minister Oli submitted his resignation to President Bhandari [3] Market Outlook - The supply of lead concentrate remains tight, which may limit the increase in primary lead production; primary lead production is expected to remain stable [3] - The supply of recycled lead has significant regional differences, and the tight supply of waste battery raw materials restricts production [3] - The demand for lead - acid batteries is relatively stable, and the market expects an increase in demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, with good performance in the emerging energy storage field [3] - However, downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state, and overall demand is in a slow recovery stage [3] - Foreign lead inventories are falling, domestic inventories are rising, and warehouse receipts are decreasing, with overall inventories unchanged; demand has not effectively driven inventory reduction [3]