瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 10, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5854, up 0.27%. The market is expected to operate with a weakening trend in a volatile manner, and investors are advised to control risks. The "anti - involution" policy effect is showing, and the year - on - year decline of the August PPI is expected to narrow. The production has been on the rise since mid - May, and the inventory has dropped to a neutral level for 5 consecutive weeks. The downstream iron - water production has significantly declined due to parade production control. [2] - On September 10, the ferrosilicon 2511 contract was reported at 5628, down 0.04%. The market is also expected to operate with a weakening trend in a volatile manner, and investors are advised to control risks. After the previous profit improvement, the production has rapidly increased, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The cost support has strengthened due to the increase in the prices of semi - coke and electricity, while the steel demand expectation remains weak. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (manganese - silicon) main contract closing price was 5854 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; SF (ferrosilicon) main contract closing price was 5628 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. SM futures contract holdings increased by 2202 hands to 575,233 hands, while SF futures contract holdings decreased by 10,924 hands to 421,689 hands. [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in manganese - silicon decreased by 7703 hands to - 75,843 hands, and the net positions of the top 20 in ferrosilicon decreased by 437 hands to - 33,181 hands. [2] - The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton, and the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to 114 yuan/ton. The SM warehouse receipts decreased by 122 to 62,288, while the SF warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 17,330. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the spot market, the price of FeMn68Si18 in Inner Mongolia was 5670 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of FeMn68Si18 in Guizhou was 5680 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of FeSi75 - B in Qinghai increased by 60 yuan/ton to 5280 yuan/ton, and the price of FeSi75 - B in Ningxia increased by 30 yuan/ton to 5390 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly average of the manganese - silicon index was 5620 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; the SF main contract basis was - 238 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the SM main contract basis was - 184 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African Mn38 lumps at Tianjin Port was 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu) was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The manganese ore port inventory increased by 1.8 million tons to 4.432 billion tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of manganese - silicon enterprises decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 46.45%, and the weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.20 percentage points to 36.34%. [2] - The weekly supply of manganese - silicon decreased by 560 tons to 212,835 tons, while the weekly supply of ferrosilicon increased by 1900 tons to 115,000 tons. [2] - The semi - monthly inventory of manganese - silicon manufacturers increased by 11,500 tons to 160,500 tons, and the semi - monthly inventory of ferrosilicon manufacturers increased by 3650 tons to 66,560 tons. [2] - The monthly inventory days of manganese - silicon in national steel mills increased by 0.74 days to 14.98 days, and the monthly inventory days of ferrosilicon in national steel mills increased by 0.42 days to 14.67 days. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.80 percentage points to 80.38%, and the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.23 percentage points to 85.77%. [2] - The monthly crude steel output decreased by 352.58 million tons to 7965.82 million tons. [2] - The weekly demand for manganese - silicon in the five major steel types decreased by 2988 tons to 123,668 tons, and the weekly demand for ferrosilicon in the five major steel types decreased by 497.50 tons to 20,076.10 tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US government announced preliminary benchmark revision data, with the largest downward revision since 2000. The non - farm employment in the US was revised down by 911,000 for the year ending in March, equivalent to an average monthly decrease of nearly 76,000. [2] - During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's manufacturing added - value increment is expected to reach 8 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 30% of the global total, and the overall scale has remained the world's first for 15 consecutive years. [2] - A JPMorgan trader said that the day of the Fed's September interest rate cut would be the time when "the favorable news is exhausted." If the Fed cuts interest rates as expected at the September 17 meeting, this already - digested positive news may prompt investors to take profits and temporarily withdraw. [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has timely约谈ed major food - delivery platforms, and the platforms have promised to abide by laws and regulations, prevent unfair competition, resist vicious subsidies, and promote the standardized and orderly development of the industry. [2]