东吴证券晨会纪要-20250911

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent cooling of U.S. employment data makes a rate cut in September almost certain, with expectations of a 25bps cut and potential for 1-2 additional cuts throughout the year [1][16][20] - The report highlights that gold prices surged past $3600 per ounce, reaching new highs due to concerns over Eurozone fiscal stability and the anticipated rate cuts [1][16] - Upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and inflation metrics (PPI and CPI) are critical for determining the tone of the September FOMC meeting [1][16][20] Employment Data Analysis - In August, the U.S. added only 22,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, with prior months' data also revised downward [2][20] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.324%, slightly above expectations, indicating a weakening labor demand while maintaining a distorted balance of supply and demand [2][20] - The report suggests that the labor market is experiencing a dual weakness, with non-farm employment growth declining more sharply than the rise in unemployment [2][20] Fixed Income Market Insights - The issuance of green bonds increased to approximately 8.767 billion yuan, with a notable rise in the number of new issues compared to the previous week [3] - The report discusses the performance of the bond market, indicating limited downward movement in bond yields despite a significant stock market correction [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of the equity-risk premium (ERP) as a measure of stock-bond valuation, currently indicating a downward trend since 2015 [5] Industry Reports - The electronic industry is highlighted for its advancements with Rubin CPX, which addresses the challenges of the million-token era and enhances computational efficiency [10] - The renewable energy sector shows strong growth in inverters and wind power production, while the solar supply chain faces challenges [11] - The IT and internet finance sector is positioned for growth due to increased market activity and ongoing digital transformation within brokerages [12] Company-Specific Insights - Federal Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 7.519 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit increase of 27.02%, driven by validated innovation capabilities [13][14] - Foster's mid-year report indicates stable profitability in its film products and rapid growth in electronic materials, projecting significant profit increases through 2027 [15]