生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250911

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs and the potential for this difference to continue to strengthen seasonally will support pig prices to some extent. Additionally, if the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if this occurs, pig prices are expected to rise at the end of the year [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 10, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 428 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in spot prices. Attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its positions by 2,241 lots today, with a position of approximately 75,700 lots. The highest price today was 13,400 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,210 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,315 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. Based on piglet data, the overall slaughter volume of live pigs will increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than in the first half [3]. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen oscillatory [3]. - Market bearish and bullish logics: Bears believe that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow and difficult, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for pig prices is limited as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. Bulls believe that the breeding end has already reduced weight, which is beneficial for the future market, consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cool, and although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter volume, the increase will be limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the breeding end), and with abundant supply, it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. The stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs and the potential for this difference to continue to strengthen seasonally will weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight, providing some support for pig prices. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle of "price decline → increased slaughter enthusiasm → price decline" may form. If this cycle occurs, pig prices are expected to rise at the end of the year, and a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered (for reference only, not constituting investment advice) [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - National live pig slaughter price on September 10 was 13.31 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.45% compared to September 9 [6]. - In Henan, the live pig slaughter price on September 10 was 13.51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.66% compared to September 9 [6]. - In Sichuan, the live pig slaughter price on September 10 was 13.17 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.75% compared to September 9 [6]. - Futures prices of various contracts on September 10 showed an upward trend compared to September 9, with increases ranging from 0.42% to 0.99% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan on September 10 was 195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton or 47.3% compared to September 9 [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contracts [14].