尿素早评：现货走低，关注后市逢低做多机会-20250911

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the future. The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not expensive. In the second half of the year, there are two possible upward drivers for the urea price: on the supply side, there is an expectation of upgrading and renovating old - fashioned plants (about 20% of urea plants are over 20 years old, and the current comprehensive operating rate is over 80% with limited idle capacity); on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, especially in September - October [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Futures Prices: On September 10, compared with September 9, UR01 in Shandong decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.83%), UR05 decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.81%), and UR09 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.68%) [1]. - Domestic Spot Prices: In Henan, the price decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.60%); in Northeast China, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.59%); in Jiangsu, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.20%), while the price in Hebei remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 14 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged [1]. 3.3 Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - Upstream Costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream Prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu all remained unchanged [1]. 3.4 Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1681 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1692 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1668 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1669 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1679 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 283,349 lots [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].