研究所晨会观点精萃：美国PPI大幅不及预期，美联储降息预期进一步增强-20250911

Report Date - September 11, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - US PPI significantly missed expectations, strengthening the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. The global risk appetite has increased, and the short - term domestic market sentiment and risk preference in China have also risen. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a short - term upward macro - drive [2] - For different assets: stocks are short - term oscillating strongly, be cautious and go long; bonds are short - term high - level oscillating, be cautious and observe; for commodities, black is short - term oscillating, be cautious and observe; non - ferrous is short - term oscillating, be cautious and go long; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, be cautious and observe; precious metals are short - term high - level strongly oscillating, be cautious and go long [2] Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas: US August PPI annual rate was 2.6%, the lowest since June, leading the market to expect three rate cuts this year. The US dollar index showed resilience. Domestic: China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better. Core inflation rebounded, and the Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption. The short - term domestic market sentiment and risk preference increased [2] - Asset performance: stocks are short - term oscillating strongly, bonds are short - term high - level oscillating, black commodities are short - term oscillating, non - ferrous are short - term oscillating, energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, precious metals are short - term high - level strongly oscillating [2] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as oil and gas, film and television, and communication, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With improved consumption and increased policy expectations, the short - term macro - drive is upward, and it is recommended to be cautious and go long short - term [3] Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures markets continued to be weak, with low trading volume. Demand weakened, inventories rose, and production slightly increased. The cost support increased, and the market is likely to oscillate in the short - term [4] - Iron ore: The spot and futures prices rebounded slightly. The proportion of profitable steel mills was 60%, and the supply decreased this week. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [4][5] - Silicon manganese/silicon iron: The spot prices were flat, and the futures prices oscillated. The manganese ore price was firm. The production of silicon iron had cost support, and the output decline space was limited [5] Chemicals - Soda ash: The supply increased, the demand was weak, and the profit decreased. It is in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [6] - Glass: The supply was stable, the demand was hard to increase significantly, and the profit slightly increased. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [6] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The interest rate cut expectation rose, but the domestic demand will weaken marginally, and the short - term rate cut expectation will support the price [7] - Aluminum: The price rose slightly, the inventory increased, and the demand in the peak season was poor. The medium - term upward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7] - Aluminum alloy: The waste aluminum supply is tight, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term with limited upward space [8] - Tin: The supply side was affected by maintenance and tight mines, but it will ease. The demand was weak, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [8] - Lithium carbonate: The price fell, and the market was affected by the news of potential mine复产. It is expected to oscillate weakly [9] - Industrial silicon: The price rose, and the market was affected by the industry conference. It is expected to oscillate [9] - Polysilicon: The price fell, and the market faced the game between strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [10] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price continued to rise slightly [11] - Asphalt: The price rebounded with oil, and the upward space is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up with oil [12] - PX: The market is in a tight pattern, and it is expected to oscillate [12] - PTA: The price stopped falling with oil, but the upward space is limited [12] - Ethylene glycol: The price stabilized with raw materials, and it is expected to oscillate [13] - Short - fiber: The price adjusted with the polyester sector, and the upward space is limited [13] - Methanol: The supply - side pressure exists, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [14] - PP: The fundamental pressure is large, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [14] - LLDPE: The supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [15][16] - Urea: The supply is under pressure, and the price is expected to fall [16] Agricultural Products - US soybeans: The price fell, and the USDA may lower the yield and export forecasts [17] - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The domestic short - term supply exceeds demand, but rapeseed meal has an upward basis in the later stage [17] - Soybean and rapeseed oil: The CBOT soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market has a trend of supply - demand contraction in the fourth quarter, and the market is in a narrow adjustment [18] - Palm oil: The MPOB report was slightly bearish. The inventory was at a high level, but the export may be strong in the peak season [19] - Corn: The new - season corn in Northeast China is on the market in small quantities, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The price in North China is stable [20] - Pigs: The spot price rebounded weakly, and the supply and demand both increased in September. The price should not be overly pessimistic [20]