Variety Views - On September 10, A-share's three major indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.13% to 3812.22, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.38% to 12557.68, and the ChiNext Index up 1.27% to 2904.27. The trading volume of the two markets was 1978.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 140.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated on September 10, closing at 4445.36, up 9.11 [1]. - On September 10, the coke weighted index showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1612.3, down 12.1 [1]. - On September 10, the coking coal weighted index remained weak, closing at 1121.0 yuan, down 22.5 [2]. Impact on Coke and Coking Coal Futures Prices - Coke: Last week, coke enterprises in the northern region were restricted by production limits, but this week's production rate is expected to recover. Steel mills' production will resume this week. Downstream demand is average, with on - demand procurement. Coke enterprises' inventory is accumulating, and the spot market sentiment is weakening with a price cut expectation [3]. - Coking coal: Last week, the coal mine's production rate declined significantly, but it is expected to recover this week. Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level this year, and the downstream receiving enthusiasm is average, with the spot market quotation slightly falling. The downstream enterprises' production rate decreased last week due to production limits, but they still have the motivation to operate due to good profits. The market is waiting for the peak season to start downstream replenishment [3]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Recently, the Brazilian ethanol price has risen, which may lead sugar mills to modify the sugar/ethanol production ratio. Affected by this, the US sugar rebounded on Tuesday. Supported by factors such as the US sugar's stable rebound and stable spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly on Wednesday. At night, it fluctuated slightly higher. Vietnam's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to continue to grow, with sugarcane production exceeding 13.34 million tons and sugar production exceeding 1.37 million tons, an increase of 8.24% year - on - year [3]. Rubber - Due to the large decline in the previous trading day, the Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Wednesday. Bosch's CEO expects the automotive industry to face intense competition next year, limiting production. Thailand's meteorological agency warned of possible floods from September 10 - 11. Affected by these factors, the Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher at night. In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a slight decrease of 1% month - on - month and a 35% increase year - on - year. From January to August this year, the cumulative sales exceeded 700,000 vehicles, reaching about 708,000, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [4]. Soybean Meal - On September 10, CBOT soybean futures closed down. As the US soybean harvest is about to start, the supply pressure is rising without Chinese purchases. The US Department of Agriculture will release a monthly supply - demand report on Friday, and the market expects a slight decrease in the US soybean yield and a high probability of a decrease in US soybean export data. In the domestic market, on September 10, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. The M2601 main contract closed at 3066 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The import soybean crushing volume remains high, and the soybean meal output is large. Last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory reached 1.16 million tons, a new high in nearly a year. Although the import of soybeans in the past two months has exceeded expectations, the Sino - US trade negotiation is undecided, and the market expects a decline in future supply. The soybean meal price will continue to oscillate [4][6]. Live Pigs - On September 10, the live pig futures price oscillated. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13315 yuan/ton, up 0.64%. Currently, the production capacity is being realized, the inventory of suitable - weight and medium - large pigs is increasing, and the daily sales pressure of group pig enterprises is increasing, resulting in an oversupply in the market. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day are approaching, the terminal consumption recovery is slow, and it is difficult to form strong support in the short term. The live pig supply - demand situation remains loose [6]. Shanghai Copper - The US PPI in August showed an unexpected 0.1% monthly decline in the final product price of total demand, with an annual increase of 2.6%, far lower than the market expectation. This indicates that the expected acceleration of wholesale inflation did not occur. Global copper inventories are still at a historical low. LME copper inventory decreased by 400 tons to 78,225 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants continued to decline. The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5752 tons to 36,110 tons this week, which supports the copper price. However, the peak - season demand expectation is weak, the price decline is supported, but there is no upward momentum, and the overall center of gravity moves up slowly [7]. Iron Ore - On September 10, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed up 0.25%, at 805 yuan. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased this period, and the arrival volume also decreased slightly, resulting in a tightened supply. The molten iron production decreased significantly, but due to good steel mill profits, the demand for molten iron is expected to recover. The short - term iron ore price will oscillate [7]. Asphalt - On September 10, the asphalt 2511 main contract closed up 0.88%, at 3450 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate continued to decline, and the asphalt manufacturers' shipment volume increased slightly. With the arrival of the peak season, the terminal demand is expected to improve, but the actual driving force is still limited. The short - term asphalt price will oscillate [7]. Logs - On September 10, the log 2511 contract opened at 803, with a minimum of 801, a maximum of 808, and closed at 806.5, with a daily reduction of 442 lots. The futures price rebounded to the 60 - day moving average of 812. Attention should be paid to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 812. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, both unchanged from the previous day. Customs data on the 8th showed that the import of logs and sawn timber from January to August decreased by 13.2% year - on - year. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price in the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on the price [8]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,860 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 137 lots compared with the previous trading day. Heavy rain and floods in the Pakistani cotton area affected cotton harvesting [8]. Steel - On September 10, rb2601 closed at 3109 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3342 yuan/ton. The demand recovery in the steel market in "Golden September" is still slow. Low - price resources are traded well, while high - price resources are not. Currently, the market is in a fierce long - short game, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Downstream terminals purchase on - demand, and the steel price may continue to oscillate narrowly [8]. Alumina - On September 10, ao2601 closed at 2933 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina production capacity and weekly output are at a high level, and enterprises still have a certain profit margin. There is also an expectation of new production capacity in the future, so the supply will be continuously sufficient. The downstream electrolytic aluminum is already operating at full capacity, and without new production capacity, the downstream demand cannot increase, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance and continuous inventory accumulation. In this context, the alumina market remains in a state of oversupply, and the price continues to oscillate weakly [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 10, al2510 closed at 20,790 yuan/ton. The macro environment remains favorable. Fundamentally, the downstream demand has improved marginally, the proportion of molten aluminum has increased, and the ingot casting volume has decreased. However, the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory has not arrived, and the actual demand has not improved significantly. The cost upward space of downstream enterprises is limited, but there are still expectations of interest rate cuts and a peak season. The aluminum price is supported at the bottom, and the subsequent price still depends on the realization of the consumption peak season [9]
国新国证期货早报-20250911
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-09-11 01:21