国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250911

Report Overview - Report Date: September 11, 2025 - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Focus: Agricultural product futures Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Lack of fundamental drivers, short - term correction [2] - Soybean oil: Uncertain US soybean oil policies, limited themes [2] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2] - Soybean: Oversold rebound [2] - Corn: Oscillating [2] - Sugar: Focus on Brazilian exports [2] - Cotton: Monitor the situation of new cotton listings [2] - Eggs: Short - term oscillation [2] - Live pigs: Weak spot market, strong policy [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the listing of new peanuts [2] Summary by Product Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil futures had a day - closing price of 9,244 yuan/ton with a - 2.55% decline and a night - closing price of 9,302 yuan/ton with a 0.63% increase. Soybean oil futures had a day - closing price of 8,256 yuan/ton with a - 1.81% decline and a night - closing price of 8,290 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase [4]. - News: Malaysia's August palm oil inventory was 2,202,534 tons, a 4.18% month - on - month increase; production was 1,855,008 tons, a 2.35% increase; exports were 1,324,672 tons, a 0.29% decrease; imports were 49,036 tons, a 19.66% decrease. Malaysia's September 1 - 10 palm oil exports decreased by 8.43% (AmSpec) and 1.2% (ITS) compared to the same period last month [5][6][8]. - Trend Intensity: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean 2511 had a day - closing price of 3,911 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% decline and a night - closing price of 3,927 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase. DCE soybean meal 2601 had a day - closing price of 3,066 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% decline and a night - closing price of 3,076 yuan/ton with a 0.39% increase [10]. - News: On September 10, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to concerns about Chinese demand and active position adjustments. Analysts expect the USDA to lower US soybean and corn yield forecasts on Friday, but the production is still expected to be high [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: Soybean meal trend intensity is 0; soybean trend intensity is +1 [12]. Corn - Fundamental Data: C2511 had a day - closing price of 2,197 yuan/ton with a - 0.81% decline and a night - closing price of 2,200 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase. C2601 had a day - closing price of 2,170 yuan/ton with a - 0.96% decline and a night - closing price of 2,169 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% decline [14]. - News: Northern corn port collection prices were stable, while Guangdong Shekou prices increased. Other related grain prices also had different trends [15]. - Trend Intensity: Corn trend intensity is 0 [16]. Sugar - Fundamental Data: The raw sugar price was 16.54 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,920 yuan/ton, and the futures主力 price was 5,535 yuan/ton [17]. - News: Indian monsoon precipitation increased again. Brazilian sugar exports decreased in July and August. Conab lowered the 25/26 Brazilian sugar production forecast. China's sugar import and production data also had changes [17][18]. - Trend Intensity: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [20]. Cotton - Fundamental Data: CF2601 had a day - closing price of 13,855 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase and a night - closing price of 13,860 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase. ICE cotton futures closed at 66.72 cents/pound, up 0.5% [22]. - News: The domestic cotton spot market had slightly better trading, mainly for textile enterprises' rigid demand procurement. The cotton yarn market was generally weak, and the ICE cotton futures rebounded [23]. - Trend Intensity: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [25]. Eggs - Fundamental Data: Egg 2510 had a closing price of 3,019 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.43% decline, and egg 2601 had a closing price of 3,353 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 1.56% decline [26]. - Trend Intensity: Egg trend intensity is 0 [26]. Live Pigs - Fundamental Data: The Henan spot price was 13,580 yuan/ton, and the futures prices of different contracts also had different values [29]. - Market Logic: At the end of the month and the beginning of the month, the group significantly reduced the supply, and the spot price rebounded. However, the weight increased again, and the supply in September was large. The 3 - 5 month cost may decline, and the 7 - month contract may have policy regulation [31]. - Trend Intensity: Live pig trend intensity is 0 [30]. Peanuts - Fundamental Data: The prices of different peanut varieties and futures contracts had changes, such as the Liaoning 308 general - purpose peanut price was 7,700 yuan/ton, and PK510 had a closing price of 7,876 yuan/ton with a - 0.63% decline [33]. - News: The spot market had different situations in different regions. New peanuts were expected to be listed in October, and some regions had new peanuts with high moisture [34]. - Trend Intensity: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [37].