宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250911

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and the steel price is expected to continue the low - level volatile operation situation. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2601 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line [2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is shock - weak. The view reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic of a weakly stable supply - demand pattern and low - level volatile steel prices. The calculation method of price fluctuations and the definitions of shock - strong/weak are also provided [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar runs weakly and stably. Short - process steel mills have reduced production, and the weekly rebar output has decreased month - on - month, but the decline is not large and it is still at a relatively high level within the year. Coupled with high inventory, the supply pressure has not been relieved. Meanwhile, the rebar demand is weak, high - frequency indicators are running at a low level, and the downstream industries have not improved, with poor performance in the peak season, which continues to put pressure on steel prices. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the rebar fundamentals are weak, industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. With the relatively favorable peak - season expectation and cost increase, the steel price is expected to continue the low - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by the Steel Union today [3].