宝城期货资讯早班车-20250911

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Considering the export downside risk and the weakening fiscal contribution, it is expected that the downward pressure on the domestic economy may increase after September, and the fundamental demand for monetary easing will rise. If the Fed cuts interest rates again, the domestic monetary policy may follow [23]. - In the context of the continuous decline in deposit interest rates, funds are gradually flowing from deposits to the wealth - management market. It is expected that the scale of listed companies' deposit - to - wealth - management conversion will reach hundreds of billions in the next year. Overseas wealth management has also become an important direction for corporate asset allocation [24]. - The new regulations on public fund sales fees mainly affect public bond funds and the bond market through the increase in redemption fees. Bond ETFs may see further incremental capital inflows [24]. - The core driving forces for the market in the fourth quarter may come from three aspects: the continuous decline in the risk - free interest rate, the "anti - involution" policy and the expected improvement of PPI data, and technological breakthroughs and policy support in the technology field [30]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month and 49.1% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, up from 50.1% in the previous month and the same as the same period last year [1]. - In July 2025, M0, M1, and M2 increased by 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% year - on - year respectively, with M1 and M2 accelerating compared to the previous month [1]. - In August 2025, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline of PPI narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][2][11]. - In August 2025, exports increased by 4.4% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.3% year - on - year, both showing a slowdown compared to the previous month [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - In August, the CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, while the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year. The PPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [2]. - Five futures and options products were listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on September 10, and some products were included in the QFII trading scope [2]. - Canada is reviewing the current tariff rates on imported products from China and may relax the tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [3]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 92%, and the probability of cutting by 50 basis points is 8% [3]. Metals - Since late August, the international gold price has risen, with a year - to - date increase approaching 40%. The recent jump is related to the market's "front - running" of the Fed's September rate cut and the rise in long - term bond yields in many countries [4][5]. - On September 9, the inventories of some metals on the London Metal Exchange changed, with tin and nickel inventories increasing, and lead and zinc inventories decreasing [5]. - Many banks have adjusted the starting amount of gold accumulation due to the large fluctuations in the gold price [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - China has made major breakthroughs in oil, gas, and uranium exploration, with oil production stable at 200 million tons and natural gas production exceeding 240 billion cubic meters [6]. - Anhui Province publicly auctioned 5 strategic mineral exploration rights, with a total exploration area of 16.9256 square kilometers [6]. - As of September 10, the prices of black tungsten concentrate and ammonium paratungstate have increased significantly compared to the beginning of the year [6]. Energy and Chemicals - On September 10, the main contract of US crude oil rose, driven by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and OPEC+'s decision to limit production increase [7][8]. - Six departments regulated the photovoltaic industry, and the industry association called for self - discipline [8]. - Russia's seaborne crude oil exports increased, and the oil exports from its western ports in September were raised by 11% [8]. - The US EIA crude oil inventory increased, and the total inventory of crude oil and refined oil reached the highest level since 2023 [8]. Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission will hold a symposium on pig production capacity regulation [9]. - In August, US coffee imports from Brazil decreased significantly, and Germany became the largest overseas market for Brazilian coffee [9]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Argentina's soybean planting area in the 2025/2026 season to decrease by 4.3% year - on - year [9]. 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On September 10, the central bank conducted 304 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 74.9 billion yuan [10]. Important News - In August, China's CPI decreased year - on - year, and the decline of PPI narrowed [11]. - The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to do a good job in the second - half economic work and promote the domestic and international dual - cycle [11]. - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, promote consumption, and encourage private investment [12]. - China will expand high - level opening - up and promote the high - quality development of service trade [12][13]. - The market regulator solicited opinions on measures to promote the development of the private economy [13]. - Many bond funds' net values declined, and the redemption pressure increased [14]. - The auction of small and medium - sized bank equity was cold, and some government investment funds had problems such as idle funds [14]. - Some local governments and individuals are prepaying loans to save on interest [15]. - Japan will conduct a 5 - year treasury bond auction, and investors expect moderate demand [15]. - The US 8 - month PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, providing support for the Fed to cut interest rates [16]. - Some companies had bond - related events, and some overseas credit ratings were adjusted [16]. Bond Market Summary - The bond market weakened, with yields of major interest - rate bonds rising and bond futures falling [17]. - The money market interest rates mostly rose, and the yields of some bonds were determined through auctions [18][19][20]. - European and US bond yields mostly declined [20][21]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index rose slightly [22]. Research Report Highlights - CICC Fixed Income expects the domestic economy to face greater downward pressure after September and believes that the domestic monetary policy may follow the Fed's rate cut [23]. - CITIC Securities expects the scale of listed companies' deposit - to - wealth - management conversion to reach hundreds of billions in the next year [24]. - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that the new regulations on public fund sales fees will increase the trading cost of public bond funds, and bond ETFs may attract more capital [24]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income analyzes the capital situation, government bond payment, and inter - bank bond market leverage [24]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income also provides information on the disclosure of special new special bonds [25]. - Xingzheng Fixed Income points out that the yields and credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have declined [26]. Today's Reminders - On September 11, 235 bonds will be listed, 127 bonds will be issued, 90 bonds will be paid, and 200 bonds will pay principal and interest [26][27]. 4. Stock Market News - The A - share market rebounded with reduced trading volume, with the AI industry chain rising and some sectors falling. The trading volume reached a one - month low [28]. - The Hong Kong stock market rose, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.01%. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$75.66 billion [28]. - A person suggested that Hong Kong should cut or cancel the stock stamp duty in three stages and set up differentiated listing standards for the GEM [28]. - The margin trading business is booming, and a securities firm increased its credit business scale [29]. - Multiple public funds held autumn strategy meetings, believing that the market may be driven by factors such as the decline in the risk - free interest rate, policy promotion, and technological breakthroughs [30].