Group 1: Gold - The US economy may be weaker than expected, and the market is more concerned about the rate of this interest rate cut. The rebound of the US dollar index has weakened, which is positive for gold. The market has fully priced in the September interest rate cut, but a reversal may occur after the expectation is fulfilled. Before the interest rate cut is realized, the trend remains bullish, but the rhythm needs attention [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil - Concerns about oversupply still exist. Recent geopolitical issues such as the Israeli attack on Qatar and Poland's shooting down of Russian drones have disrupted the market. It is expected that the strengthening of the Fed's interest rate cut also supported the overnight crude oil market. It is advisable to wait and see and operate after the geopolitical issues weaken [2]. Group 3: Rebar - The demand recovery in the steel market in September is still slow. Low - priced resources have fair sales, while high - priced resources have poor sales. It is expected that the blast furnace hot metal output will increase this week, the iron ore price is strong, and the coking coal market is weakly stable. Currently, the market is in a fierce long - short game, and range - bound operations are recommended [4]. Group 4: Coking Coal - Recently, domestic coking coal production has been somewhat suppressed, but due to the lack of further production cut expectations, the optimistic atmosphere in the futures market has cooled. The market has gradually returned to the logic of demand drag, driving the main coking coal contract to fluctuate weakly. The bullish risk lies in the secondary fermentation of the "anti - involution" policy [4]. Group 5: Ferrosilicon - On the cost side, raw material prices and electricity costs remain stable overall, and there is still support for the cost of ferrosilicon. In terms of demand, steel production declined during the military parade, but the profit of finished products is fair, the peak season is approaching, and steel production is expected to increase. In terms of supply, ferrosilicon production has reached a high level, the market supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the difficulty of inventory reduction in the future is increasing. Currently, the market inventory pressure is acceptable, and the cost side still supports the ferrosilicon price in the short term, but in the long - term, the price center will tend to decline [5]. Group 6: Silver - The unexpected decline in the US PPI inflation in August adds new support for the Fed's interest rate cut decision next week. The continuous decline of the US PPI data indicates increased downward pressure on the US economy, and the market has started to focus on the rate of interest rate cut. The downward pressure on the US economy is greater than expected, the market risk appetite has been significantly revised down, which puts pressure on silver. Silver will fluctuate in the short term, be bullish before the interest rate cut is realized, and bearish after the cut [5]. Group 7: Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The CPI is still lower than expected, but core inflation has increased, and the decline of PPI has narrowed with a continuous month - on - month change. Overall, inflation shows that the economy has a certain resilience, which is positive for the stock market. In the third quarter, the bond market supply may be under pressure, which is negative for the long - end bond market. The bond market supply - demand and the stock - bond seesaw need to be considered together, and the short - term trend is bearish with fluctuations [6]. Group 8: Live Pigs - Yesterday, the national pig price mainly declined. The breeding side has pressure to sell, the demand increase is insufficient, and supply exceeds demand. Some southern regions have seen large declines due to environmental protection, epidemics and other factors, but low prices have stimulated resistance and the price is gradually stabilizing; there is concentrated selling in some northern regions, and the weak trend is difficult to change in the short term, with a low possibility of a sharp rebound. Farmers are advised to choose the right time to sell for hedging [7]. Group 9: Rapeseed Meal - Currently, the rapeseed raw materials of oil mills are tight, and the crushing output is limited. In the context of tight spot market circulation of rapeseed meal, traders and oil mills have a strong sentiment of holding prices and being reluctant to sell. Coupled with the support of high import costs, the spot price of rapeseed meal is extremely firm. It is expected that the rapeseed meal price will mainly fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. Group 10: Rubber - In August, the growth rate of passenger car sales declined, and the finished product inventory still needs to be consumed, so the demand side is still weak. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. It should be treated with a wait - and - see attitude. The weather conditions in the main producing areas of the industrial fundamentals still need attention [8]. Group 11: Palm Oil - The MPOB report data is basically in line with expectations, slightly bearish. Both production and ending inventory have increased slightly, and exports are lower than last month and the market's forecast this month, which is inconsistent with the data of previous institutions. In the domestic market, terminal buyers have made concentrated low - price replenishments, and trading volume has increased. The short - term palm oil futures price is somewhat supported, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [8]. Group 12: PTA - There is an expectation of increased PTA supply. In terms of demand, polyester inventory is low, and the downstream polyester load has stabilized and rebounded. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the improvement in terminal orders. In terms of cost, the PX supply - demand expectation has weakened marginally, and there are short - term geopolitical factors affecting crude oil. Overall, it is advisable to wait and see for PTA [9]. Group 13: Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up rate has increased at a high level, downstream demand is relatively stable, and methanol port inventory continues to accumulate. The pick - up at the main storage areas along the Yangtze River is good, and the expected import volume in September remains high. The inland methanol market continues to be strong, enterprise auctions are smoothly traded, the basis of the port methanol market has strengthened, and trading is fair. It is expected that the methanol 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 2390 level. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on pullbacks [9][10]. Group 14: Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - duty soda ash is 1279 yuan/ton, and it has been fluctuating weakly recently. Soda ash weekly production has increased by 4.53% month - on - month; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers has decreased by 2.43% week - on - week; the float glass start - up rate has increased by 0.43 percentage points week - on - week; the national average price of float glass has increased by 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises has increased by 0.77% month - on - month. The float glass start - up is relatively stable, and inventory has increased slightly. The East China market is mainly in a narrow - range consolidation. Some enterprises in Jiangsu and Anhui have raised prices, and most downstream operations maintain just - in - time needs. The domestic soda ash market is in a dull and stable fluctuation. Soda ash plant start - up is at a high level, downstream demand is average, and low - price restocking transactions continue. It is expected that the soda ash 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at the 1315 level. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. Group 15: Plastic - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7300 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; LLDPE weekly production has increased by 3.08% week - on - week; production enterprise inventory has increased by 2.01% week - on - week; the daily production profit of oil - based production is - 225 yuan/ton; the average start - up rate of downstream products of Chinese polyethylene has increased by 1.8% week - on - week, among which the overall start - up rate of agricultural film has increased by 2.7% compared with the previous period; the start - up rate of PE packaging film has increased by 0.9% compared with the previous period. Recently, the LLDPE price trend has been weak. The LLDPE device of Maoming Petrochemical has started, the market spot is sufficient, production enterprise inventory has increased, and the downstream start - up rate has slowly increased. Attention should be paid to the demand follow - up during the peak demand season, and the cost - side support has strengthened. It is expected that the L2601 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 7205 level. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long [11].
今日早评-20250911
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-09-11 01:37