国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250911

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily market analysis and trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, suggesting that most commodities will experience wide fluctuations or repeated oscillations [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Trend Forecast: Wide fluctuations [2][4] - Fundamental Data: The closing price of futures contract 12601 was 805 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of imported and domestic ores remained mostly stable, except for a 1 yuan increase in the price of Super Special ore (56.5%). Some basis and spread values changed slightly [4] - Macro and Industry News: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4] - Trend Intensity: Neutral (0) [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - Trend Forecast: Wide fluctuations [2][6][7] - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 decreased, with trading volumes and positions changing. The spot prices in most regions declined. Some basis and spread values changed [7] - Macro and Industry News: In August, China exported 951.0 million tons of steel, a 3.3% month-on-month decrease; imports were 50.0 million tons, a 10.6% month-on-month increase. In the week of September 4, the production of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased, inventories increased, and apparent demand decreased [8][9] - Trend Intensity: Neutral (0) [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Trend Forecast: Wide fluctuations affected by market sentiment [2][10] - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of some futures contracts increased, with changes in trading volumes and positions. Spot prices and various spreads changed [10] - Macro and Industry News: On September 10, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese varied by region. A steel company's procurement price of 75B ferrosilicon decreased. A large steel group increased its tender volume for silicomanganese in September, and the tender price decreased. UMK lowered its manganese ore price for China in October [10][11][12] - Trend Intensity: Neutral (0) [13] Coke and Coking Coal - Trend Forecast: Wide fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][14][15] - Fundamental Data: The closing price of JM2601 decreased, while J2601 increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke changed, and some basis and spread values changed [15] - Macro and Industry News: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an action plan for stabilizing growth in the electronic information manufacturing industry from 2025 - 2026 [15] - Trend Intensity: Neutral (0) [15] Logs - Trend Forecast: Repeated oscillations [2][17] - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different futures contracts changed, with varying daily and weekly price and volume fluctuations. Spot prices remained mostly stable [18] - Macro and Industry News: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [20] - Trend Intensity: Neutral (0) [20]