国泰君安期货所长早读-20250911

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.9% in August, and the decline in PPI year - on - year has narrowed for the first time since March, indicating that the previous production - limiting measures of upstream state - owned enterprises are taking effect, but the foundation for PPI recovery is not solid [7][8]. - For the pig sector, there is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectations. The short - term weakness is difficult to change, and the idea of large reverse arbitrage is maintained [10]. - For the soybean meal sector, it is in a rebound and oscillation state. The price is waiting for the guidance of trade negotiations, and the market is trading time for space [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Research 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold: The non - farm payrolls are revised downwards. The trend intensity is 1 [14][18]. - Silver: The gold - silver ratio is rising. The trend intensity is 1 [14][18]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - Copper: The US dollar is under pressure, and the price rises. The trend intensity is 1 [14][22]. - Zinc: It is in range - bound oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [14][25]. - Lead: The inventory decreases, which supports the price. The trend intensity is 0 [14][28]. - Tin: It is in range - bound oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [14][31]. - Aluminum: It runs strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [14][34]. - Alumina: It is supported by cost. The trend intensity is 0 [14][34]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity is 0 [14][34]. - Nickel: It runs in a narrow - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [14][38]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the steel price may oscillate. The trend intensity is 0 [14][38]. 3.1.3 Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate: It oscillates weakly, and attention should be paid to the actual progress of resumption of production. The trend intensity is - 1 [14][44]. 3.1.4 Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: The Inner Mongolia meeting increases news - based disturbances. The trend intensity is 0 [14][47]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the fermentation of market sentiment. The trend intensity is 1 [14][47]. 3.1.5 Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: It oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][50]. - Rebar: It oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][52]. - Hot - rolled coil: It oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][53]. - Ferrosilicon: Market sentiment disturbs, and it oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - Silicomanganese: Market sentiment disturbs, and it oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - Coke: Expectations are repeated, and it oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][60]. - Coking coal: Expectations are repeated, and it oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][61]. 3.1.6 Forest Products - Logs: It oscillates repeatedly. The trend intensity is not provided [14][63]. 3.1.7 Chemicals - p - Xylene: It rebounds in the short term, and the monthly spread is in a positive arbitrage. No trend intensity provided [14]. - PTA: The monthly spread is in a positive arbitrage. No trend intensity provided [14]. - MEG: It rebounds in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Rubber: It oscillates in a wide range. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Synthetic rubber: It oscillates within the fundamental valuation range. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Asphalt: Refineries resume production stably, and the shipment in the north slows down. No trend intensity provided [14]. - LLDPE: It has a medium - term oscillating market. No trend intensity provided [14]. - PP: It oscillates in the short term, and there is still pressure in the medium - term trend. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Caustic soda: It is not advisable to chase short. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Pulp: It oscillates strongly. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Methanol: It oscillates. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Urea: It oscillates weakly. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Styrene: It is strong in the short term and weak in the medium term. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Soda ash: There is little change in the spot market. No trend intensity provided [14]. 3.1.8 Energy - LPG: Geopolitical conflicts intensify, and the potential supply risk increases. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Propylene: The supply device fluctuates, and the spot trading price rises. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - PVC: It oscillates at a low level. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Fuel oil: It oscillates narrowly at night, showing a short - term adjustment trend. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The weakness continues, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market narrows again. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. 3.1.9 Agricultural Products - Short - fiber: It rebounds in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Bottle chips: It rebounds in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Offset printing paper: It oscillates at a low level. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Pure benzene: It is strong in the short term and weakly oscillates. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Palm oil: The fundamental driving force is insufficient, and it corrects in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Soybean oil: The US soybean oil policy is uncertain, and there are limited themes for soybean oil. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Soybean meal: The US soybeans closed down overnight, and the Dalian soybean meal may oscillate. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Soybean: It rebounds after over - decline. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Corn: It oscillates. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to Brazil's exports. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the situation of new cotton listing. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Eggs: It oscillates in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Pigs: The spot is weak, and the policy is strong. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. No trend intensity provided [14][16].