Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On September 10, 2025, the main contract of soybean oil futures dropped by 1.92% to 8256 yuan/ton. The decline was due to multiple factors including strong expectations of international soybean harvest, increased domestic soybean arrivals, high oil - mill operating rates leading to rising inventories, weak demand in the traditional off - season, enhanced substitution by palm oil, and market sentiment. Investors should monitor international soybean market trends, domestic demand changes, and policy adjustments to seize short - selling opportunities [3]. - For stock index futures, with a doji candlestick on the chart, and considering news such as an 8 - month CPI decline of 0.4% year - on - year, a PPI decline of 2.9% year - on - year, and tightened account - opening conditions for mainland residents by the world's largest online brokerage, the market is expected to remain in high - level oscillations in the short term [6]. - For gold futures, as the US August non - farm payroll data was below expectations and there is a high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which is positive for gold. With sufficient weekly - line adjustments, the price is expected to continue rising in the short term [11]. - For iron ore futures, with stable supply shipments, signs of steel mills'复产, high - level operation of hot metal, and approaching National Day, steel mills' restocking may support raw materials. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation range, and investors should watch for breakthroughs [14][15]. - For glass futures, daily melting is stable, factory inventories are accumulating, and downstream deep - processing orders' recovery is insufficient. Technically, it continued to adjust today, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted [18][19]. - For palm oil futures, due to large cumulative gains in the recent oil market, increased inventory pressure, and lack of demand support, the market's upward momentum has weakened, and profit - taking pressure has increased. It should be treated with a bearish and oscillatory view [22]. - For pulp futures, the pulp price in Shandong remained stable today, and port inventories started to decline slightly but remained at a medium - to - high level. There are expectations of a boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet. It is expected to remain in low - level oscillations, and short - term long positions are recommended [25]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Soybean Oil - On September 10, 2025, the main contract of soybean oil futures fell 1.92% to 8256 yuan/ton. Supply - side factors include strong international soybean harvest expectations, increased domestic soybean arrivals, and high oil - mill operating rates leading to rising inventories. Demand - side factors include weak demand in the traditional off - season, enhanced substitution by palm oil, and market sentiment. Investors should adjust strategies based on market and policy changes [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The market closed with a doji candlestick. News includes an 8 - month CPI decline of 0.4% year - on - year, a PPI decline of 2.9% year - on - year, and tightened account - opening conditions for mainland residents by the world's largest online brokerage. It is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The US August non - farm payroll data was below expectations, and there is a high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which is positive for gold. After sufficient weekly - line adjustments, the price is expected to rise in the short term [11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Supply shipments are stable. Steel mills are showing signs of复产, and hot metal is expected to operate at a high level. With the approaching National Day, steel mills' restocking may support raw materials. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation range, and breakthroughs should be watched [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Daily melting is stable, factory inventories are accumulating, and downstream deep - processing orders' recovery is insufficient. Technically, it continued to adjust today, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - Due to large cumulative gains in the recent oil market, increased inventory pressure, and lack of demand support, the market's upward momentum has weakened, and profit - taking pressure has increased. It should be treated with a bearish and oscillatory view [22]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong remained stable today, and port inventories started to decline slightly but remained at a medium - to - high level. There are expectations of a boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet. It is expected to remain in low - level oscillations, and short - term long positions are recommended [25].
金信期货日刊-20250911
Jin Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-11 01:39