黑色建材日报-20250911

Report Information - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [1] - Report Subject: Black Building Materials Market Analysis Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is cooling, and the prices of finished steel products are weakening despite fluctuations. Steel demand remains sluggish in the traditional peak season, with narrowing mill profits and a deepening weak trend in the market. If demand fails to recover effectively, steel prices may continue to decline [4]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. The focus will be on the recovery of steel mill production and the verification of peak - season demand after key events [7]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the coking coal market, with limited trading opportunities [11]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, influenced by downstream capacity integration and market sentiment. Polysilicon continues to show a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with prices subject to fluctuations due to policy and downstream price - passing progress [13][15]. - Glass and soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, glass prices will follow macro - economic sentiment, and soda ash prices are expected to have a gradually rising price center, but their upward space is limited by demand [17][18]. Summary by Category Steel - Price and Inventory: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3109 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.44%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in registered warrants and open interest. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3342 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.20%), with unchanged registered warrants and increased open interest. Spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [3]. - Market Analysis: The overall supply of steel remains high, while demand is weak. Rebar's apparent demand is weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. Hot - rolled coil production has decreased significantly, but the decline in apparent demand is more obvious, and inventory is continuously rising [4]. Iron Ore - Price and Inventory: The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) was 805.00 yuan/ton, with no change. The weighted open interest was 85.64 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.96 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.29% [6]. - Supply and Demand: Overseas iron ore shipments have significantly declined, with a slight decrease in Australian shipments and a significant drop in Brazilian shipments due to port berth maintenance. The recent arrival volume has slightly decreased. The average daily hot - metal production has decreased, mainly in North China. Port inventory has increased, while steel mill inventory has decreased [7]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Price: On September 10, the manganese silicon main contract (SM509) closed up 0.27% at 5854 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed up 0.14% at 5628 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. - Market Analysis: Both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in an interval - oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions. Their prices are likely to follow the black sector, especially the coking coal market, with limited trading opportunities [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) was 8665 yuan/ton, up 3.03%. The weighted open interest decreased. The spot prices of 553 and 421 remained unchanged. In August, the supply and demand of industrial silicon both increased, but it was still in a "weak reality" situation. In September, it is expected to fluctuate due to downstream capacity integration and market sentiment [13]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2511) was 52885 yuan/ton, down 1.19%. The weighted open interest decreased. The spot prices of N - type silicon materials showed slight adjustments. Polysilicon continues to show a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, and prices are subject to fluctuations due to capacity integration and downstream price - passing progress [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price in Shahe decreased by 9 yuan, and that in Central China remained unchanged. As of September 4, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased slightly. Glass production remains high, and downstream real - estate demand has not improved significantly. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, it will follow macro - economic sentiment [17]. - Soda Ash: The spot price remained unchanged. As of September 8, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased slightly, with an increase in light soda ash inventory and a decrease in heavy soda ash inventory. Downstream glass production rates have changed slightly. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center is expected to rise, but the upward space is limited by demand [18].