对二甲苯：短期有反弹，月差正套，PTA，月差正套，MEG，短期有反弹

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX is expected to have a short - term rebound due to a decline in short - term device operation rates and a tight - balance situation, but remains weak in the fourth quarter. PTA is in a tight - supply - demand balance, with concerns about future supply increases. MEG has a weak unilateral trend but limited downside space [2][10][11] Content Summary by Categories Market Quotes - Futures: PX, PTA, PF, and SC futures prices rose, while MEG futures prices fell. The PX11 - 1 and PTA11 - 1 month - spreads increased, the MEG1 - 5 and SC11 - 12 month - spreads decreased, and the PF11 - 12 month - spread remained unchanged [4] - Spot: PX, PTA, and naphtha MOPJ spot prices rose, while MEG and Dated Brent spot prices fell. PX - naphtha spread and PTA processing fees decreased, short - fiber and bottle - chip processing fees increased, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread remained unchanged [4] Market Dynamics - PX: On September 10, Asian PX prices rose, supported by rising crude oil prices and concerns about supply shortages. The PX supply remains tight, and downstream polyester activities in China are strong [5][8] - PTA: The PTA spot price rose to 4,625 yuan/ton, with mainstream basis at 01 - 63 [8] - MEG: The MEG inner - market fluctuated slightly, with the current spot basis at a premium of 116 - 120 yuan/ton to the 01 contract [8] - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang improved locally, with an estimated average sales volume of about 90%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers also improved, with an average sales volume of 54% [9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX and PTA is 1, and the trend intensity of MEG is 0 [10] Views and Suggestions - PX: In the short - term, there may be a rebound. In the long - term, it is weak in the fourth quarter. Suggestions include buying on dips (range: 6,590 - 6,780), 11 - 01 calendar spread long, 1 - 5 calendar spread short, long PX short EB, long naphtha short PX, and 01/05 long PX short PTA [10] - PTA: It is in a tight - supply - demand balance, but there are concerns about future supply increases. The supply is expected to be sufficient in the future [10] - MEG: The unilateral trend is weak, but the downside space is limited. Suggest buying on dips [11]