五矿期货农产品早报-20250911

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The protein meal market is affected by factors such as US soybean demand, domestic inventory, and Brazilian planting. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to buy at low costs and be cautious at high levels [3][5]. - The oil market is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy and low inventory in Southeast Asia. It is expected to be moderately bullish in the medium - term and is recommended to buy on dips [7][8]. - The sugar market is bearish both domestically and internationally. The downward space depends on Brazilian production from August to October [9][10]. - The cotton market has mixed factors of low inventory and weak consumption. Short - term prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [12][13]. - The egg market may be stable or rise in the short - term, but there is a risk of decline in the future. It is recommended to wait and see and buy on dips [15][17]. - The pig market is expected to be stable with narrow fluctuations. It is advisable to pay attention to the possibility of a rebound and short - selling opportunities [19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Protein Meal - Important Information: US soybean prices fell slightly on Wednesday due to demand concerns. Domestic soybean meal had high inventory pressure. Last week, downstream inventory days decreased, and oil - mill soybean inventory reached a five - year high. US soybean production areas may see a decline in the excellent - good rate, and Brazilian premiums rebounded [3]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the cost performance after the stabilization of soybean import costs. The domestic soybean meal spot may start to destock in September. It is recommended to buy on dips within the cost range and be cautious about profit and supply pressure at high levels [5]. Oil - Important Information: From September 1 - 10, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased. In August, Malaysian palm oil inventory, production, and exports had different changes. Analysts predict that the US 2025/26 soybean production may be 42.71 billion bushels. Domestic oils fluctuated and declined on Wednesday [7]. - Trading Strategy: Supported by multiple factors, the oil market is expected to be moderately bullish in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after a decline [8]. Sugar - Important Information: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. In August, national sugar sales decreased, and industrial inventory increased. Brazil's sugar exports to China increased [9]. - Trading Strategy: Both domestic and international sugar markets are bearish. The downward space of sugar prices depends on Brazilian production from August to October [10]. Cotton - Important Information: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate weakly. As of September 5, the spinning and weaving factory operating rates, cotton commercial inventory, and US and Brazilian cotton export data had different changes [12]. - Trading Strategy: With mixed factors of consumption and inventory, short - term cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [13]. Egg - Important Information: Most national egg prices rose, and the market had little inventory and good demand. Egg prices may be stable or rise today [15][16]. - Trading Strategy: Although there is a risk of decline in the future, it is recommended to wait and see and buy on dips [17]. Pig - Important Information: Domestic pig prices mainly fell yesterday. The breeding side may stabilize prices, and downstream demand is average. Pig prices may be stable with narrow fluctuations today [19]. - Trading Strategy: The supply in September is still bearish, but there are supporting factors. It is advisable to pay attention to the possibility of a rebound and short - selling opportunities [20].