铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250911

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - The US PPI in August significantly cooled down, with the month - on - month rate at -0.1% and the year - on - year rate at 2.6%, lower than expected. This strengthens the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. In China, the CPI in August was dragged down by food, while the core CPI reached a new high for the year. The PPI has established a repair direction, but the repair slope is expected to be gentle. The A - share market may enter a period of shock consolidation, and the bond market remains weak [2][3]. - Different commodities show various trends. Precious metals are at a high level, copper prices break through upwards, aluminum prices continue to be strong, alumina is under pressure, zinc prices oscillate at a low level, lead prices are weakly oscillating, tin prices stabilize and rise, industrial silicon rebounds, lithium carbonate prices oscillate, nickel prices continue to oscillate within a range, oil prices are in a downward trend with geopolitical risks, steel prices stabilize at a low level, iron ore prices are strongly oscillating, and agricultural product prices such as soybean meal and palm oil are also in different oscillation states [4][6][8][11] 3. Summary by Commodity Category Macro - Overseas: The US 8 - month PPI was much lower than expected, with the month - on - month rate at -0.1% and the year - on - year rate at 2.6%. The market continued to bet on interest rate cuts, the US bond yield declined, the US dollar index closed at 97.8, and stock indices reached new highs. Geopolitical risks and sanctions on Russian oil buyers promoted the rise of oil prices, and the gold price oscillated narrowly. The nomination of Fed governor nominee Milan was approved by the Senate Committee, and the judge stopped the dismissal of Cook, with the Trump administration appealing urgently [2]. - Domestic: In August, the CPI was dragged down by food to -0.4%, the core CPI rose to 0.9%, and the PPI was -2.9% year - on - year, narrowing from the previous value. The A - share market rose with shrinking volume, and the bond market remained weak. The 10Y and 30Y interest rates rose to 1.81% and 2.09% respectively [3]. Precious Metals - On Wednesday, international precious metal prices oscillated at a high level and closed slightly higher. The decline of the US PPI data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, providing support for the precious metal market. The US 8 - month PPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and increased by 2.6% year - on - year, both lower than expected. Precious metal prices are expected to continue to operate at a high level, and it is not advisable to chase high in the short term [4][5]. Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated strongly, and LME copper broke through the integer mark. The decline of the US PPI strengthened the expectation of the Fed's preventive interest rate cut. China's copper ore imports increased in August. In the short term, due to supply concerns and the arrival of the consumption peak season, copper prices are expected to remain strong at a high level [6][7]. Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20790 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The decline of the US PPI and Trump's pressure on the Fed strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, the proportion of molten aluminum increased, the supply of aluminum ingots decreased, and downstream consumption improved marginally. The aluminum market atmosphere is positive, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue its strong trend [8][9][10]. Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2933 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation. The resumption of production of previously overhauled capacity and the possible inflow of imports may increase the supply pressure, and alumina is expected to continue its weak trend [11]. Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated strongly. The unexpected cooling of the US PPI strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, which boosted zinc prices. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and consumption improvement is not obvious. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [12]. Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated weakly. The cost of recycled lead is loosening, and demand is not good. Although the supply is shrinking due to refinery overhauls, lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13]. Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated strongly. The decline of the US dollar and technical support boosted tin prices. However, the recovery of Myanmar's tin mines is slower than expected, and domestic terminal demand is average. Tin prices are expected to stabilize and rise after technical support [14][15]. Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon rebounded from a low level. The supply is in a passive contraction state, and demand has improved marginally. The social inventory has decreased, and the spot market has stabilized. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Wednesday, the price of lithium carbonate opened lower with a gap and then ran strongly. Affected by the situation of lithium mines in Jiangxi, market sentiment fluctuates. Fundamentally, although it is the downstream peak - season stockpiling stage, supply remains high, and downstream is waiting and watching. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [18]. Nickel - On Wednesday, nickel prices oscillated strongly. The unexpected cooling of the US PPI and the call for interest rate cuts did not have a significant impact on nickel prices. The market has fully priced in the expectation of interest rate cuts in September. In the industry, the price of Indonesian nickel ore is stable, and the demand for raw materials from steel enterprises is not strong. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the RKAB approval in Indonesia [19][20]. Crude Oil - On Wednesday, oil prices oscillated strongly. The EIA crude oil inventory increased, and OPEC is discussing whether to gradually lift the production cut. Geopolitical risks may boost oil prices in the short term, but the fundamental situation is bearish. Oil prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the results of the OPEC meeting [21]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures oscillated at a low level. Terminal demand is weak, and the spot market trading volume is low. After the concentrated resumption of production of northern steel mills, supply pressure increases. Steel prices are expected to stabilize at a low level and oscillate, and attention should be paid to the realization of demand [22]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures oscillated strongly. With the concentrated resumption of production of northern blast furnaces, there is a demand for replenishment. Although port inventory has increased, the supply pressure is not large. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate strongly [24]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean meal and rapeseed meal contracts closed down. The precipitation in the eastern US soybean - producing area is less than average, and there is an expectation of a decrease in yield. Domestic spot supply is sufficient, and the basis is weak. The market is waiting for the USDA report, and soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. Palm Oil - On Wednesday, palm oil contracts closed down. The MPOB report showed an increase in inventory and production and a decrease in exports in August. High - frequency data also showed a decline in exports in early September. The market is affected by multiple factors, and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the lower support range [26][27]