综合晨报-20250911

Group 1: Energy - Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent's November contract up 1.61%. Short - term geopolitical factors support prices, but Q4 and Q1 2024 will see a marginal increase in supply - demand surplus. Last week, US crude inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.939 million barrels. The strategy is to combine previous high - level short positions with out - of - the - money call options [1] - After a sharp decline last Friday, fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts continued to decrease on Wednesday, providing some support [21] - In the first week of September, asphalt shipments slowed down, but the impact is expected to be short - term. Special bonds issuance from August to October 2025 is expected to be substantial. Current data shows factory inventory accumulation and social inventory reduction, with the overall inventory level remaining flat. It's recommended to hold long positions [22] - Due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia, the international liquefied petroleum gas market remains strong. In early September, the arrival volume in Guangdong decreased due to typhoons, strengthening the support of rising import costs. Terminal product prices are rising, and the high -开工 rate pattern can be maintained. The spot has stronger support, but the high - volume warehouse receipts on the futures market limit the upward momentum, so it will likely trade in a range [23] Group 2: Precious Metals - The US August PPI annual rate was 2.6%, lower than the expected 3.3% and the lowest since June. Core PPI also fell short of expectations. Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates. The market focuses on tonight's US CPI data. Precious metals may remain strong before the Fed meeting, but be cautious about chasing highs after continuous rises [2] Group 3: Base Metals - Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad reached the integer mark. The weak US August PPI continued to fuel expectations of a Fed rate cut. Pay attention to domestic spot prices and social inventories. Copper prices are in a high - level oscillation, with resistance between 79,500 - 80,500 yuan this week [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. Downstream production started to pick up seasonally, and aluminum rod production increased month - on - month. Aluminum ingot inventory is likely to remain low this year, but the inflection point of inventory accumulation is not clear. On Monday, social inventory increased by 8,000 tons compared to last Thursday. Shanghai aluminum will test the resistance at 21,000 yuan in the short term [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai spot price is stable at 20,400 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increases enterprise costs. The cross - variety price difference between the spot and Shanghai aluminum has room to narrow further [5] - Alumina's operating capacity exceeds 96 million tons, at a historical high. Industry inventory is rising, and warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have increased to over 1.1 million tons. Supply surplus is evident, and spot prices are accelerating downward. After the futures and spot prices fall below the cost of high - cost production capacity in Shanxi and Henan, the market awaits feedback from the supply side, with support seen around the June low of 2,830 yuan [6] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is high. LME zinc inventory has dropped to a low of 51,000 tons, supporting the strong performance of LME zinc. The purchase of imported zinc ore is unprofitable, so smelters mainly buy domestic ore, and the domestic TC has not increased. The CZSPT has set the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate TC at $120 - 140 per dry ton by the end of Q4. There is cost support for Shanghai zinc, but consumption is weak. With the continuous realization of mine - end increments, short - position holders are reducing positions at low levels, and the market lacks a bullish atmosphere, so it will likely trade in a low - level range [7] - LME lead inventory has declined from a high but remains as high as 239,000 tons, putting pressure on the external market. In China, large recycling aluminum plants in East China are about to resume production, and consumption is weak. The loss in lead imports is narrowing, increasing the expectation of overseas low - price supplies flowing into China. At low prices, recycling aluminum smelters are less willing to sell. Whether scrap battery prices can continue to fall is the key to breaking the downward space for Shanghai lead. Shanghai lead is expected to trade in a low - level range, with support at 16,600 yuan per ton [8] - Shanghai nickel weakened, and market trading was dull. Jinchuan nickel had a premium of 2,150 yuan, imported nickel had a premium of 300 yuan, and electrowon nickel had a premium of 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel iron is 947 yuan per nickel point. Recently, upstream price support has rebounded slightly, and the political situation has been used for further speculation, pushing up the price level of the nickel industry chain. Pure nickel inventory increased by 500 tons to 40,000 tons, nickel iron inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 29,200 tons, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 919,000 tons. Technically, the disturbance at the nickel ore end is easing, and it will likely trade in a low - level range [9] - Overnight, domestic and international tin prices rose after finding support at key levels. Overseas positions are still relatively concentrated, and domestic tin ingot production this month is low, supporting prices. However, the market is cautious about domestic tin consumption. It's recommended to hold a small number of low - level long positions based on the MA60 daily line [10] Group 4: Chemicals - Lithium carbonate prices continued to decline, and market trading was active. The resumption of production at a lithium mine under CATL pressured the market. Total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 140,000 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 3,900 tons to 39,000 tons, downstream inventory increased by 2,400 tons to 55,000 tons, and traders' inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 45,000 tons. After the rapid price cut, downstream buyers took the opportunity to purchase. The latest Australian ore price is $850. Technically, lithium prices are weak, waiting for stabilization [11] - Polycrystalline silicon futures declined with reduced positions to 52,800 yuan. The expectation of capacity management that previously drove the market up to over 56,000 yuan has not seen new progress. After profit - taking by long - position holders and a long - liquidation stampede in the past two days, market sentiment has further declined. Although there is still an expectation of production and sales restrictions in the polycrystalline silicon industry in September, the futures price is highly sensitive to capacity policy news. If no more incremental information is disclosed in the short term, the futures price may test the support at 52,000 yuan; the resistance at 55,000 yuan remains effective. It's expected to trade in a high - level range [12] - Industrial silicon rebounded after reaching the lower limit of the 8,300 yuan/ton range. In September, the supply is expected to increase by 5%. There are expectations of a decline in the production of downstream polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon, but the current inventory change shows that the decline in downstream demand is limited. It has clear support below and will likely trade in a range in the short term [13] - Urea futures prices continued to fall, and market trading sentiment was weak. Daily production decreased slightly, but the impact was limited. Agricultural demand is still in the off - season, and this year's fertilizer preparation progress is slow. Urea production enterprise inventory is higher than the same period last year. Port inventory increased slightly. The news of the Indian tender has limited impact on market sentiment, and downstream procurement is cautious, with supply and demand remaining loose [24] - Methanol futures traded in a low - level range. Port inventory continued to accumulate significantly, and no obvious inflection point was seen in the short term. The volume of imported arrivals remained high. Attention should be paid to whether the expectation of gas restrictions in Iran will be advanced. Inland methanol plant operating loads increased, downstream procurement volume increased slightly, and production enterprise inventory changed little. The near - term reality is still weak, but with the increase in the operating rate of coastal MTO plants and the expectation of downstream stocking before the National Day holiday, the market is expected to stabilize in a range [25] - As oil prices continued to rebound, the center of pure benzene prices moved up slightly. Weekly supply and demand both increased, port inventory increased slightly, processing margins rebounded, and the basis was weak. Based on the expectation of domestic maintenance and seasonal demand recovery, the supply - demand situation of the domestic unified benzene market may improve in Q3, so there's no need to be overly pessimistic. However, current downstream profitability is poor, and import expectations continue to put pressure on prices, so pure benzene prices are weak [26] - Currently, low prices in the north limit the upward space of styrene. However, due to the maintenance of a large plant in Ningbo in late September, downstream enterprises in the region have started to stock up in advance, delaying the inventory accumulation in East China ports this month and providing some support for short - term prices [27] - The supply of propylene and ethylene remains tight, and with no pressure on enterprise inventory, there is a strong willingness to raise prices. Downstream rigid demand buying has strengthened, and low - end transactions have significant premiums, with the actual transaction price center rising significantly. In the polyethylene spot market, the supply of goods is stable, but downstream orders are slow to follow up. The "peak season" demand improvement is not obvious, and factories may maintain rigid procurement. The market atmosphere is cautious. Polypropylene production enterprise factory prices are basically stable, the cost - side support of goods has little change, and holders continue to focus on selling. Some quotes are still lowered to promote transactions. Downstream factories are cautious about stocking up, and actual transactions focus on negotiation [28] - PVC futures showed an oscillating trend at night. The spot market remained sluggish, and downstream procurement enthusiasm was average. A new device of Qingdao Gulf started production, and a new device of Bohua Development is expected to increase its load by the end of the month, increasing supply pressure. The profit of chlor - alkali integration is acceptable, and cost support is not obvious. Both domestic and foreign demand is weak, and the industry continues to accumulate inventory. With the game between low valuation and weak reality, futures prices may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda futures fluctuated narrowly at night. The spot market showed differentiation, with prices in Shandong weakening and those in other regions strengthening. In Shandong, downstream acceptance decreased, and inventory increased. The rigid demand support from alumina is strong, and the operating rate of non - aluminum viscose staple fiber has recently increased, with rigid procurement. Plant maintenance and resumption coexist, and the operating rate increased slightly month - on - month. The overall inventory is low, and prices are relatively firm. It's expected that prices will not fall significantly, but with good profits, there is still supply pressure in the future. In addition, some downstream buyers are resistant to high prices, so futures prices are also unlikely to rise significantly and may trade in a wide - range oscillation pattern [29] - Overnight, PX prices continued to rebound, and PTA followed slightly, with the TA - PX price difference weakening. PX short - process profitability is good, but there is a lack of new capacity, and the output growth space is limited. Attention should be paid to the maintenance dynamics of existing plants. Inventory continued to decrease, but PTA processing margins and basis continued to weaken, mainly due to sufficient capacity and the recent restart of PX and PTA plants. The driving force for PTA prices still lies in raw materials. Terminal weaving orders increased, the operating rate of textile and dyeing increased slightly, and demand continued to improve. However, polyester filament inventory is moderately high. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking performance before the festival and the pace of polyester production increase. Before the National Day, downstream demand continues to improve. Consider the possibility of the relative valuation of PX/PTA against oil prices rising [30] - Overnight, ethylene glycol futures traded in a low - level range and closed with a doji. Domestic production continued to increase, and the expected weekly arrival volume increased slightly month - on - month. However, port inventory continued to decline at a low level, and the basis strengthened. There is new capacity pressure in the far - month contract, and the monthly spread of ethylene glycol is strong [31] - The supply - demand situation of short - fiber is stable, and prices mainly fluctuate with costs. In the short term, the basis and spot processing margins have rebounded, but the futures processing margin is weak. There is limited new capacity this year, and the recovery of peak - season demand boosts the short - fiber industry's expectations. Downstream enterprises are expected to stock up before the National Day. Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation, and long - short spreads can be bought at low levels, with the risk being lower - than - expected demand. Bottle - grade polyester chip downstream has rigid demand procurement, the basis has rebounded, spot profits have recovered, the futures processing margin has rebounded slightly, the operating rate has increased slightly, and factory inventory has increased slightly. Over - capacity is a long - term pressure, and the expected recovery space of the processing margin is limited [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - As of the week ending September 7, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 64%, higher than the market expectation of 63% but slightly lower than the previous week's 65%. In the next two weeks, the weather in the US soybean and corn main - producing areas will be mainly dry, and the temperature will turn from low to high. Today's Malaysian palm oil MPOB report is bearish. In the short term, it's necessary to guard against palm oil prices driving soybean oil prices down, which may affect the oil - tank ratio. In China, today's soybean meal spot prices were stable to slightly weak. Currently, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient, and there is generally no problem with the supply in Q4. However, if Sino - US trade negotiations are still unresolved by the end of the year, there may be a supply gap for soybeans in Q1 next year. The market may continue to oscillate in the short term, and it's difficult to have a one - way market [36] - The Malaysian palm oil MPOB report shows that the August production met market expectations, exports were far lower than expected, imports were slightly lower than expected, domestic consumption was slightly higher than the upper limit of market expectations, and the ending inventory met market expectations. Overall, the report indicates poor export demand, limited supply pressure, and a month - on - month increase in ending inventory, with a large absolute inventory value. The report is slightly bearish. From the cumulative data from January to August, production growth is small, imports are increasing, domestic consumption is increasing, and export performance is poor. Due to poor export demand, the ending inventory has increased. The ending inventory is 2.2 million tons, compared with an average of 2 million tons in the past two years, indicating large inventory pressure in the Malaysian palm oil market. Since the demand for biodiesel in the Indonesian market has been increasing in recent years, its influence on global palm oil pricing is strengthening, so the impact of the Indonesian market on palm oil cannot be ignored. US soybean oil prices weakened. This week, Republican senators in the US proposed legislation to prevent the redistribution of exemptions for small refineries, and it's expected that this exemption issue will take time to observe. In the international market, the soybean - palm oil price difference has weakened, with soybean oil weaker than palm oil, which is expected to hit palm oil demand in the short term. Combining with this slightly bearish Malaysian palm oil report, it's necessary to guard against a short - term correction in palm oil prices. In the medium term, palm oil is in the seasonal production - reduction cycle. In the long term, the biodiesel policies of Indonesia and the US support the industrial demand for vegetable oils, and the problem of aging palm trees is prominent, which is expected to support palm oil prices. Palm oil can be considered for long - position allocation at low prices [37] - There is no new dynamic in Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. With the expectation of tight rapeseed imports, the coastal operating rate remains low, supporting the prices of rapeseed products. The inventory data of the end of July released by Statistics Canada met market expectations and was lower than the average of recent years. This week, attention should be paid to the adjustment of the US Department of Agriculture report on oilseed supply and demand. Next week, Statistics Canada will adjust the crop yield forecast again. This model data takes into account the weather in August compared with the previous forecast. Overall, rapeseed product prices may rise slightly in a range in the short term [38] - The main contract of domestic soybean futures increased positions significantly, and prices broke through support and reached a new low. On Tuesday, the transaction rate of the soybean auction by Sinograin was significantly lower, and market transactions were sluggish. Sinograin will hold another soybean auction this Friday, and the market expects the auction reserve price to be lowered. In the short term, the domestic soybean market shows an oversupply situation. This year, the weather in the main domestic soybean - producing areas is generally favorable, and the harvest expectation is good. As new domestic soybeans are about to be listed, there are concerns about future supply pressure. Continuous attention should be paid to policies and the yield performance of new soybeans [39] - Yesterday, the supply of Shandong corn in the spot market was relatively loose, with 457 trucks remaining in the morning, and the purchase price was lowered. In recent days, the opening price of new - season corn in Northeast China has increased compared with last year, and the carry - over inventory in the northern port is low. Currently, traders have certain expectations for new - season corn. On September 12, Sinograin will hold another imported corn auction, with a total of about 190,000 tons. It's