碳酸锂日评：偏弱震荡-20250911

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On September 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a low level. The spot market had active low - price point pricing, and the basis premium expanded. Considering factors such as cost, supply, demand, and inventory, with short - term supply and demand both strong and the weakening expectation of supply contraction due to the active resumption of lithium mines, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to decline with fluctuations. It is recommended to go short on rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On September 10, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with the near - month contract closing at 70,300 yuan/ton, down 2,520 yuan. The trading volume was 751,480 lots (+159,805), and the open interest was 340,814 lots (-10,526) [1]. Spot Market - The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and ternary precursors showed different degrees of change on September 10. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan [1]. Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 38,101 tons. The social inventory decreased, the smelter inventory decreased, while the downstream and other inventories increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,044 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Industry News - Australia's Galan Lithium company's Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project in Argentina made significant progress in the first - phase construction, with the design of the 4th pond completed. The project has a phased development plan, aiming for an annual production of 21,000 tons of LCE in 2026, 40,000 tons in 2028, and potentially 60,000 tons in 2030 [1]. - In August, Brazilian lithium spodumene exports decreased by more than one - third year - on - year and nearly 43% month - on - month. The suspension of shipments by the largest producer, Sigma Lithium, was a major factor [1].