LPG：地缘冲突升温，潜在供应风险增强，丙烯：供应装置波动，现货成交走高

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict is intensifying, increasing the potential supply risk of LPG. The supply of propylene plants is fluctuating, leading to higher spot transactions [1]. Detailed Summaries by Sections Fundamental Tracking - LPG Futures Prices: PG2510 closed at 4,462 with a daily increase of 1.34% and a night - session price of 4,444 with a decrease of 0.40%. PG2511 closed at 4,414 with a daily increase of 1.38% and a night - session price of 4,402 with a decrease of 0.27%. PL2601 closed at 6,408 with a daily increase of 0.09% and a night - session price of 6,418 with an increase of 0.16%. PL2602 closed at 6,453 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a night - session price of 6,451 with a decrease of 0.03% [1]. - LPG Position and Trading Volume: For PG2510, the trading volume was 92,077, an increase of 31,859 from the previous day, and the position was 69,115, an increase of 3,817. For PG2511, the trading volume was 32,932, an increase of 10,261, and the position was 45,311, an increase of 3,465. For PL2601, the trading volume was 2,801, an increase of 215, and the position was 10,329, an increase of 331. For PL2602, the trading volume was 18, a decrease of 8, and the position was 887, an increase of 1 [1]. - LPG Spreads: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG10 contract was not given, while the previous day's spread was 117. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG10 contract was 88, compared with 217 the previous day. The spreads between Shandong, East China, and South China propylene and PL01 contract were 267, 192, and 67 respectively, compared with 223, 173, and 23 the previous day [1]. - Industry Chain Data: The PDH operating rate was 73.1%, slightly up from 73.0% the previous week. The MTBE operating rate was 62.2%, down from 63.5%. The alkylation operating rate was 44.5%, down from 46.8% [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG and propylene is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]. Market Information - CP Paper Goods: On September 10, 2025, the October CP paper goods for propane were at 550 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day, and for butane were at 523 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton. The November CP paper goods for propane were at 559 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton [6]. - Domestic PDH Plant Maintenance Plans: Multiple companies have PDH plant maintenance plans, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. (15 units since May 12, 2023, end date pending), and many others with various start and end times [7]. - Domestic LPG Plant Maintenance Plans: Many LPG plants have maintenance plans, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical (Shandong, full - plant maintenance since May 14, 2024, end date pending), and others with different durations and production losses [8].