尿素：震荡偏弱

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term, the market is under pressure and oscillating, with a still weak trend. The increase in the export flow of the second and third batches may drive some market speculation, but the futures price has limited speculative space under the high - premium pattern due to the light spot trading volume. In the medium - term, the export acceleration has limited impact on price as traders have prepared some goods in advance. The weak domestic demand is the main contradiction, and the increase in exports is expected to be unable to compensate for the weakening domestic demand. Overall, the price is expected to gradually decline [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,669 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,679 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The trading volume was 168,507 lots, a decrease of 13,613 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 283,349 lots, an increase of 15,169 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 8,897 tons, an increase of 54 tons; the trading value was 5.6597 billion yuan, a decrease of 481.35 million yuan. The basis in Shandong area was 1, up 14 from the previous day. The UR01 - UR05 spread remained unchanged at - 50 [2] - Spot Market: The factory prices of urea in various enterprises such as Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, etc. remained unchanged. The trading prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi areas also remained unchanged. The supply - side indicators, including the operating rate at 77.96% and the daily output at 182,390 tons, remained unchanged [2] 2. Industry News - On September 10, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1327 million tons, an increase of 37,700 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. Affected by the Indian tender and export policies, the urea export continued to accelerate, causing the inventory of some enterprises with export orders to decline. However, the inventory of enterprises without exports rose slowly due to the under - expected domestic demand. Provinces with increased inventory include Anhui, Gansu, etc., while those with decreased inventory include Hebei, Henan, etc. [3]