宝城期货国债期货早报-20250911

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and reference views of TL2512 are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that there is still a long - term expectation of interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - The main varieties TL, T, TF, TS have an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side", a medium - term view of "oscillation", and a reference view of "oscillation". In the short term, the upward and downward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient, and they are expected to be in low - level oscillation. In the long run, there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, and there is support below the treasury bond futures [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Views Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is the co - existence of long - term interest rate cut expectations and low short - term comprehensive interest rate cut possibility [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back. In the short term, the necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut is insufficient, so the downward space of market interest rates is limited, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. The rebound momentum from late August to early September has weakened, and market interest rates have gradually recovered. - In the long run, monetary policy is supportive, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, so there is support below treasury bond futures. - Recently, the risk appetite in the stock market has declined, and the stock market has entered an oscillatory adjustment. The siphoning effect of the equity market on bond market funds has weakened. - The latest inflation data shows a month - on - month stabilization but is still weak overall. Subsequent policy will continue to introduce demand - stabilizing policies, with fiscal policy as the main means. There may be some pressure on the supply side of treasury bonds in the fourth quarter [5].