国泰君安期货：商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250911

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Gold: Non-farm payrolls are being revised downward [2]. - Silver: The gold-silver ratio is on the rise [2]. - Copper: The US dollar is under pressure, leading to a price increase [2]. - Zinc: Prices are expected to trade within a range [2]. - Lead: Declining inventories are supporting prices [2]. - Tin: Prices are expected to trade within a range [2]. - Aluminum: Prices are expected to remain strong [2]. - Alumina: Costs are providing support [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Prices will follow those of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: Prices are expected to trade within a narrow range [2]. - Stainless steel: Prices are likely to trade in a volatile manner due to the tug-of-war between reality and expectations [2]. Summaries by Commodity Gold and Silver - Fundamentals: For gold, the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract closed at 833.42 with a daily decline of 0.13% and a night - session gain of 0.21%. For silver, the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract closed at 9796 with a daily decline of 0.51% and a night - session gain of 0.47%. ETF and inventory data also showed various changes [5]. - News: US inflation unexpectedly fell, with August PPI down 0.1% month - on - month, the first decline in four months, and the year - on - year growth rate of 2.6% was lower than expected [5]. - Trend Intensity: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 1 [7]. Copper - Fundamentals: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,790 with a daily increase of 0.18% and a night - session increase of 0.50%. The London copper 3M electronic disk closed at 10,012 with a daily increase of 0.96%. Inventory and spread data also showed changes [9]. - News: US inflation unexpectedly fell, and Teck Resources initiated a company - wide operational review and postponed major growth projects. China's 8 - month import data of copper ore and concentrates was released, and there were incidents in the Grasberg mine and a major merger in the mining industry [9][11]. - Trend Intensity: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [11]. Zinc - Fundamentals: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,215 with a daily increase of 0.41%, while the London zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2867 with a daily decline of 0.21%. Inventory and spread data changed [12]. - News: The Chinese government announced more active fiscal policies, and China's August CPI and PPI data were released [13]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [14]. Lead - Fundamentals: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,795 with a daily decline of 0.80%, and the London lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1978 with a daily decline of 0.60%. Inventory decreased [15]. - News: US inflation unexpectedly fell, and China's August CPI and PPI data were released [15]. - Trend Intensity: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. Tin - Fundamentals: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 270,430 with a daily increase of 0.30% and a night - session increase of 0.93%. The London tin 3M electronic disk closed at 34,635 with a daily increase of 1.76%. Inventory and price data changed [18]. - News: US inflation unexpectedly fell, and there were various policy - related news [19]. - Trend Intensity: Tin has a trend intensity of 0 [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamentals: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,790, and the LME aluminum 3M closed at 2622. Alumina and cast aluminum alloy also had corresponding price and trading volume data [21]. - News: US inflation unexpectedly fell, and there was news about the Fed's decision - making process [23]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy all have a trend intensity of 0 [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,850, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,915. Industry chain - related data such as prices and spreads also changed [25]. - News: There were various news in the nickel and stainless - steel industries, including production capacity adjustments, environmental issues, and government policies in Indonesia [26][27][28]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [30].