铅锌日评：区间整理-20250911

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The lead market has no obvious contradictions with both supply and demand being weak. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support the lead price. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September and positive domestic sentiment, the lead price remains range - bound [1] - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season and inventory continues to accumulate. However, the extremely low LME zinc inventory overseas, the continuous back structure of LME 0 - 3, and high capital concentration lead to the upward oscillation of LME zinc, which boosts SHFE zinc. It is expected that SHFE zinc will be range - bound in the short term under the influence of the external market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The closing price of the lead futures main contract was 16,795 yuan/ton, down 0.80%. The lead basis was - 95 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [1] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of SHFE lead was - 35 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 25 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was - 15 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 45,315 lots, up 48.69%. The open interest was 50,467 lots, up 1.54%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.90, up 46.43% [1] Inventory - LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, with no change. SHFE lead warrant inventory was 53,689 tons, down 0.24% [1] Fundamental Information - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall, not yet affecting smelter operations. Some smelters have maintenance plans, and the operation rate of primary lead has slightly declined. In the secondary lead sector, due to the stable lead price, raw materials and losses have reduced smelter enthusiasm, expanding the scope of production cuts and reducing the demand for waste batteries [1] Zinc Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingot was 22,020 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The closing price of the zinc futures main contract was 22,215 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The zinc basis was - 195 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan [1] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of SHFE zinc was - 75 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 5 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 83,724 lots, down 16.66%. The open interest was 103,054 lots, down 4.76%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.81, down 12.50% [1] Inventory - LME zinc inventory was 50,825 tons, with no change. SHFE zinc warrant inventory was 44,329 tons, up 3.86% [1] Fundamental Information - Smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 50 yuan/metal ton to 3,850 yuan/metal ton last week, while the imported zinc ore processing fee index increased to 96.25 dollars/dry ton. The demand for zinc ingots is weak, and downstream buyers mainly fix prices at low points [1] News and Other Information - Jinchuan Group Copper and Precious Metals Co., Ltd. plans to build a 20kt/a anode slime pretreatment production line with a total investment of 255.8785 million yuan and environmental protection investment of 24.45 million yuan, accounting for 9.56% of the total investment [1] - On September 9, the CZSPT held a meeting and announced the expected reference range for imported zinc concentrate processing fees before the end of Q4 2025 [1] - On September 9, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 48.13 dollars/ton, with an open interest of 156,391 lots, down 1,110 lots; the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 17.62 dollars/ton, with an open interest of 199,723 lots, down 989 lots [1] Investment Strategies - For lead, the trading strategy is range - bound operation [1] - For zinc, the short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to short at high prices [1]