Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Short - term rebound: Bean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have a short - term rebound, but market participants should be cautious when chasing the upward trend due to approaching harvest and sufficient supply [1]. - Short - term decline and adjustment: Palm oil and soybean oil are in a short - term decline and adjustment phase, with operations turning to a wait - and - see mode due to uncertainties in U.S. biodiesel policies, and looking for opportunities to go long after stabilization [1]. - Short - term adjustment: Rapeseed oil is in a short - term adjustment, with its price mainly fluctuating with competing oils. Attention should be paid to China - Canada negotiations and U.S. biodiesel policies [1]. - Cautious short - term bearish: Cotton and red dates are under cautious short - term bearish views. Cotton is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and short - term short - selling is recommended this week. Red dates are expected to have a supply - demand pressure after considering carry - over inventory, and short - selling opportunities on rallies should be watched [1]. - Cautious short - term bullish: The live hog market is under a cautious short - term bullish view. Although there is short - term supply pressure, with the recovery of demand, the market may show a pattern of both supply and demand booming, and the price center may move up slightly in the autumn and winter consumption season [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Bean Meal - Price and Inventory: As of September 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 966.1 million tons, an increase of 60.5 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil factories was 731.7 million tons, an increase of 34.85 million tons from the previous week. The bean meal inventory was 113.62 million tons, an increase of 5.74 million tons from the previous week. The average coastal mainstream quotation was around 3,000 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to weaken [3]. - Market Outlook: The USDA will release the September supply - demand report on Saturday, with a risk of lower U.S. soybean yields. The fundamentals are temporarily bullish, but with the approaching U.S. soybean harvest and sufficient short - term domestic supply, the market should be cautious when chasing the upward trend [4]. Rapeseed Meal - Price and Inventory: As of September 5, the coastal area's main oil factory rapeseed inventory was 10.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.8 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.7 million tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contract was 5.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from the previous week [7]. - Market Outlook: The rapeseed meal trend mainly follows the bean meal trend. Attention should be paid to the results of recent China - Canada meetings. The international market's Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, and the domestic market's rapeseed meal inventory has declined but is still higher year - on - year, with low demand and a low spot price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal [7]. Palm Oil - Price and Inventory: As of September 5, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 61.93 million tons, an increase of 0.92 million tons from the previous week. The trading volume increased significantly, and the proportion of market participants looking up increased [8]. - Market Outlook: The bio - diesel policy in the U.S. has encountered obstacles, and the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased in August, causing the palm oil price to fall. However, considering the unchanged fundamentals of bio - diesel, operations should be adjusted to a wait - and - see mode, and opportunities to go long after stabilization should be watched [9]. Cotton - Price and Inventory: The domestic spot cotton price decreased by 0.27% to 15,294 yuan/ton, and the international ICE cotton price increased by 0.39% to 66.72 cents/pound. The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 141.56 million tons, lower than the same period last year [10][11]. - Market Outlook: Internationally, the U.S. cotton area's non - drought rate decreased, and the excellent - good rate remained stable. Domestically, new cotton is in the boll - opening stage, with weak cotton farmers' price - holding sentiment. The demand is slightly improved but still weak, and short - term short - selling is recommended this week [12][13]. Red Dates - Price and Inventory: The red date's main contract CJ2601 decreased by 0.05% to 11,035 yuan/ton. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreased by 46 tons to 9,410 tons, higher than the same period last year [14][15]. - Market Outlook: The main production areas are in the coloring and sugaring stage, and the weather speculation window is gradually closing. The new - season production is expected to decrease, but the supply - demand gap may not be obvious after considering carry - over inventory. Short - selling opportunities on rallies should be watched [15][16]. Live Hogs - Price and Inventory: The live hog's main contract Lh2511 increased by 0.64% to 13,315 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price remained stable at 13,750 yuan/ton. The national sample enterprise's live hog inventory increased by 19.08 to 3,782.4, and the出栏量 increased by 26.04 to 1,117.72 million heads [17][18]. - Market Outlook: In September, the planned出栏量 and the slight reduction of breeding sows put pressure on the spot market. In the medium - and long - term, the production capacity is gradually being reduced, and the far - month contract may have some support at the bottom. With the recovery of demand, the market may show a pattern of both supply and demand booming, and the price center may move up slightly in the autumn and winter [18][19].
中辉期货豆粕日报-20250911
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-11 02:09