生猪：现货弱势，政策偏强

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - At the end of the month and the beginning of the next, large - scale group companies significantly reduced supply, and the spot price fulfilled the market's rebound expectation. However, the average weight of pigs increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs weakened. The overall supply increment in September was relatively large. From September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonated, and market pressure gradually emerged. It is expected that the spot price center will further decline. The purchasing sentiment for piglets decreased, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter in March - May. Attention should be paid to the downward - driving force of the price center in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation for the July contract, and it is mainly strong in the short - term. Pay attention to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: Henan's spot price was 13,580 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 13,400 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 14,240 yuan/ton, all with a year - on - year change of 0 [2] - Futures Prices: The prices of contracts such as生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 were 13,315 yuan/ton, 13,740 yuan/ton, and 13,015 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 85, 85, and 65 respectively [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: For example, the trading volume of生猪2511 was 32,626 lots, an increase of 6,090 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 75,719 lots, a decrease of 2,241 lots from the previous day [2] - Price Spreads: The basis of生猪2511 was 265 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 85; the 11 - 1 spread of live pigs was - 425 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year change of 0; the 1 - 3 spread was 725 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 20 [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity was 0, with the value range being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels were classified as weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where - 2 indicated the most bearish and 2 indicated the most bullish [3]