白糖：关注巴西出口

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the sugar market, highlighting concerns about global consumption due to decreased Brazilian exports, and presents supply - demand data for both domestic and international markets, indicating potential supply shortages in the 25/26 and 24/25 sugar - crushing seasons [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Sugar Fundamental Data - The current raw sugar price is 16.54 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.05; the mainstream spot price is 5920 yuan per ton with no year - on - year change; the futures main contract price is 5535 yuan per ton, up 17 yuan year - on - year [1]. - The 91 spread is - 10 yuan per ton, down 22 yuan year - on - year; the 15 spread is 28 yuan per ton, up 7 yuan year - on - year; the mainstream spot basis is 385 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan year - on - year [1]. b) Macro and Industry News - Indian monsoon precipitation has strengthened again. Brazilian exports have declined, with 374 tons exported in August, a 5% year - on - year decrease, and 359 tons in July, also a 5% year - on - year decrease. Conab has lowered the 25/26 Brazilian sugar production forecast to 4450 tons from the previous 4590 tons. China imported 74 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 32 tons [1]. c) Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season will be 1116 million tons, consumption 1580 million tons, and imports 500 million tons; in the 25/26 season, production will be 1120 million tons, consumption 1590 million tons, and imports 500 million tons [2]. - As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, the national sugar production was 1116 million tons, an increase of 120 million tons; cumulative sales were 811 million tons, an increase of 152 million tons; the cumulative sales rate was 72.7%. As of the end of July, cumulative imports in the 24/25 season were 324 million tons, a decrease of 34 million tons [2]. - In the 25/26 season, the market anticipates a decline in the sugar yield and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2]. d) International Market - ISO forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 million tons in the 25/26 season and 488 million tons in the 24/25 season [3]. - As of August 16 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 6.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 2289 million tons, a decrease of 112 million tons, and the cumulative MIX was 52.51%, up 3.37 percentage points year - on - year [3]. - ISMA/NFCSF expects the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 season to be 3490 million tons, compared to 2950 million tons in the 24/25 season, an increase of 540 million tons [3]. - OCSB data shows that the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 season was 1008 million tons, an increase of 127 million tons [3]. e) Trend Intensity The sugar trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [4].