Great Wall Securities·2025-09-11 02:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the industry, indicating an expectation that the overall industry performance will outperform the market in the next six months [65]. Core Insights - The public utility sector has shown a recovery in market performance, with the industry index rising by 1.2% during the week of September 1-7, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.38 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 2.01 percentage points [2][11]. - The report highlights the introduction of the "136 Document" in Shaanxi and Zhejiang, which aims to enhance market mechanisms and pricing for renewable energy projects, potentially stabilizing industry profitability [3][35][37]. - The report suggests that the coal price stabilization and improved electricity pricing will enhance the profitability of thermal power companies in the short term, while long-term prospects remain positive due to market reforms [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The public utility industry index's PE (TTM) is currently at 18.06, up from 17.92 the previous week, and higher than 16.53 a year ago [2][23]. - The sector's PB is at 1.81, compared to 1.79 last week and 1.77 a year ago [2][26]. - The report ranks the public utility sector 6th among 31 sectors in terms of performance during the week [11]. 2. Individual Stock Performance - Top-performing stocks include Shanghai Electric (+35.66%), Jingyun Tong (+14.51%), and Luxiao Technology (+13.48%) [3][28]. - Conversely, stocks like Huayin Electric (-10.5%) and China General Nuclear Power (-4.43%) experienced declines [3][28]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The "136 Document" in Shaanxi sets a bidding range for incremental projects at 0.18 to 0.3545 yuan/kWh, while Zhejiang's document proposes a storage price of 0.4153 yuan/kWh [35][37]. - The report notes the release of the "Sichuan Electricity Market Settlement Rules," which will impact independent energy storage pricing [35][39]. 4. Key Data Tracking - As of September 5, 2025, the price of Shanxi mixed coal (5500) is 681 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.59% [6][45]. - The total transaction volume for green certificates in wind and solar power reached 12.4 and 16.4 million units, respectively, during the week [48]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on thermal power companies due to expected profit stability and potential dividend increases [7]. - For hydropower, it suggests monitoring stocks that have seen significant pullbacks, while for green energy, it anticipates a stabilization in expected returns following the "136 Document" implementation [7].