首席点评：降息意浓，绿稀红稠

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic liquidity in 2025 is expected to remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. The external risks are gradually easing, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, which further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating rotation of sectors and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, which have more technology - growth components, are more offensive and volatile but may bring higher returns, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300, which have more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive with less volatility but relatively weaker price elasticity. The stock index has been rising since July and may experience short - term shock consolidation, but the probability of a medium - to - long - term upward trend is high [2][11]. - The double - coking futures are in a high - level shock trend. The current demand is in the off - season, and factors such as the expectation of coke price cuts and the low near - far - month price difference put pressure on the market, but policy expectations and the impact of over - production checks provide support [3][23]. - The palm oil price may be under pressure in the short term due to the lower - than - expected exports of Malaysian palm oil in August [3][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Main News Concerns of the Day - International News: On September 10, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio. Both sides emphasized the importance of the strategic guidance of the heads - of - state diplomacy, proper management of differences, and exploration of practical cooperation to promote the stable development of Sino - US relations [4][5]. - Domestic News: In August 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.4% year - on - year. The average consumer price from January to August decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year [6]. - Industry News: Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly deployed a special rectification action for network chaos in the automotive industry, aiming to strengthen the handling of network chaos such as online water armies, "black public relations", "black mouths", and "fan circles" in the automotive industry [7]. 3.2. Daily Earnings of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on September 9 and 10, 2025, including the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, etc. For example, the FTSE China A50 futures rose by 0.48% from September 9 to 10, and ICE Brent crude oil rose by 1.61% [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - Financial Products - Stock Index: The stock index is expected to have short - term shock consolidation but a high probability of medium - to - long - term upward trend. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][11]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures prices continued to fall. With the stabilization of the equity market and the gradual tightening of funds, the stock - bond seesaw effect continued. The new regulations on fund redemptions also disturbed the market, and long - term treasury bond futures prices hit new lows and are expected to remain weak [12]. - Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: SC crude oil rose 0.82% at night. Eight countries decided to increase the daily crude oil production quota by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 million barrels of daily production cuts may be partially or fully restored [13]. - Methanol: Methanol rose 0.04% at night. The coastal methanol inventory increased significantly, and the overall device operating load increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [14]. - Rubber: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. The supply is affected by the rainy season in the main production areas, and the demand is in the off - season with uncertainties [16]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefins are running weakly. The supply has shrunk, and the market pressure has eased. The support from downstream inventory replenishment needs to be monitored [17]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass futures are in shock consolidation, and soda ash futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the futures prices are weak and approaching the spot prices. Attention should be paid to the autumn consumption and policy changes [18]. - Metals - Precious Metals: Precious metals are strong. The weak US economic data and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Fed, as well as other factors, support the rise of gold. Gold and silver are expected to be strong when the interest rate cut is approaching [19]. - Copper: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. The concentrate supply is tight, and the smelting output is growing, while the downstream demand has both positive and negative factors [20]. - Zinc: Zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range. The smelting output is expected to increase, and the short - term supply may be in surplus [21][22]. - Black Products - Double - Coking: The double - coking futures are in a high - level shock trend, with both pressure and support factors [3][23]. - Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: Protein meal futures are expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The US soybean has strong support at the bottom, and the domestic raw material supply is expected to be loose [24]. - Oils and Fats: Palm oil prices may be under pressure in the short term due to lower - than - expected exports from Malaysia in August [3][25]. - Sugar: International sugar prices are expected to be weak, while the domestic sugar price is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory but is also dragged down by import pressure. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the weak trend of international sugar [26]. - Cotton: ICE cotton prices rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is waiting for new cotton acquisition and traditional peak - season demand guidance, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak in the short term [27]. - Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC index is in shock and decline. The spot freight rate of European routes is in the off - season and is expected to continue to decline. The market may be more in a shock state [29].