市场聚焦天气情况，棉花短期震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the soft commodities market, specifically sugar and cotton. The market is currently paying attention to weather conditions, and cotton is expected to experience short - term fluctuations. The consumption of sugar has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and the import of sugar has increased significantly recently. Cotton is at risk of high - temperature heat damage in some areas, but the decreasing commercial inventory and the upcoming cotton textile peak season provide some support for cotton prices. The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Data Overview - External Quotes: On September 10, 2025, the price of US sugar was 15.89 US dollars, with a daily increase of 0.32%, and the price of US cotton was 66.72 US dollars, with a daily increase of 0.50% [3]. - Spot Prices: On September 10, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5880.0 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of sugar in Kunming was 5835.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.26%. The price of the cotton index 328 was 3280, with a daily decrease of 0.32%, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang was 15250.0 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.33% [3]. - Spread Overview: The spreads of sugar and cotton futures contracts showed different degrees of changes. For example, the SR01 - 05 spread increased by 33.33%, and the CF01 - 05 spread decreased by 22.22% [3]. - Import Prices: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 77.65 on September 10, 2025 [3]. - Profit Margin: The import profit of sugar remained unchanged at 1614.0 on September 10, 2025 [3]. - Options: The implied volatilities of sugar and cotton option contracts SR601C5500, SR601P5500, CF601C13800, and CF601P13800 were 0.0855, 0.0816, 0.1278, and 0.115 respectively [3]. - Inventory Warehouse Receipts: On September 10, 2025, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 11772.0, with a daily decrease of 1.71%, and the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 5322.0, with a daily decrease of 2.51% [1][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Sugar: The consumption of sugar has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks. The import of sugar has increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, but the total annual import volume is still expected to be within the expected range. Since July, extreme rainfall in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia has affected local sugarcane and sugar beet crops, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring [1][2]. - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening and flocculation stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is at high risk of high - temperature heat damage. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the upcoming cotton textile peak season provides some support for cotton prices [1][2].