20250911申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250911

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range as there are both bullish and bearish factors. Night - time copper prices rose 0.5%. The concentrate supply is tight, squeezing smelting profits, yet smelting output continues to grow strongly. The power industry shows positive growth, PV installations increased sharply year - on - year but future growth may slow, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector remains weak [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations. Night - time zinc prices rose 0.14%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly, and short - term supply - demand may tilt towards surplus [2]. Summary by Related Content Copper - Market performance: Night - time copper prices rose 0.5%, with the domestic previous date futures closing price at 79,780 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 10,013 dollars/ton, LME spot at a discount of 56.61 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 155,275 tons, down 550 tons [2]. - Fundamental factors: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output is growing strongly. The power industry has positive growth, PV installations increased sharply year - on - year with potential slowdown, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak [2]. - Outlook: Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range, and investors should focus on the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand changes [2]. Zinc - Market performance: Night - time zinc prices rose 0.14%, with the domestic previous date futures closing price at 22,140 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 2,888 dollars/ton, LME spot at a premium of 23.01 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 51,025 tons, down 2,050 tons [2]. - Fundamental factors: Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly, infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak [2]. - Outlook: Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations, and investors should pay attention to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand changes [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 20,790 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 50 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 2,622 dollars/ton, LME spot at a premium of 2.92 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 485,275 tons with no change [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 120,600 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 1,740 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 15,146 dollars/ton, LME spot at a discount of 182.88 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 218,070 tons, up 456 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 16,760 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 120 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 1,987 dollars/ton, LME spot at a discount of 44.17 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 239,325 tons, down 3,800 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 270,250 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 1,120 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 34,635 dollars/ton, LME spot at a premium of 27.00 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 2,355 tons, up 75 tons [2].