Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous Metals: Neutral on copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver. For copper, recommended to hold or buy on dips for short-term trading; for aluminum, recommended to buy on dips after a pullback; for nickel, recommended to hold or short on rallies; for tin, gold, and silver, recommended for range trading [1][10][11][15] - Energy and Chemicals: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins. Most are expected to trade in a range, with PVC, caustic soda, and styrene having specific price ranges to watch; rubber is expected to be strongly bullish in the short term; for soda ash, recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage [1][20][21][25] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Neutral on cotton, cotton yarn, and PTA, recommended for range trading; bullish on apples, expected to be strongly bullish; bearish on red dates, expected to be weakly bearish [1][34][36][37] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Bearish on live pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn and soybean meal, recommended for range trading; bullish on oils, expected to be strongly bullish in the short term but currently experiencing a high-level correction [1][38][40][46] Core Views - The A-share market is in a confidence restoration phase after adjustment, and the mid-term upward drive remains unchanged. The bond market is under pressure and lacks rebound momentum [5] - The black building materials market is in a stalemate, with the price of coking coal rising slowly and the price of rebar expected to fall first and then rise in September [7] - The non-ferrous metals market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors, with the price of copper expected to fluctuate at a high level and the price of aluminum expected to be supported by supply and demand [10][11] - The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policy, with the price of PVC expected to fluctuate in the short term and the price of soda ash recommended for arbitrage [20][33] - The cotton textile industry chain market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy, with the price of cotton expected to be strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [34] - The agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy, with the price of live pigs expected to be under pressure in the long term but with short-term rebound potential [39] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Stock Indices: The A-share market oscillated and pulled up on Wednesday, with the trading volume shrinking slightly, indicating that the market is gradually entering the confidence restoration phase after adjustment. In the medium term, the upward drive of the market remains unchanged, and it is recommended to buy on dips [5] - Treasury Bonds: The bond market was under pressure on Wednesday, with the yield curve steepening significantly. The negative factors included tight capital, supply pressure, and the stock-bond seesaw effect. If the market environment does not change, it will take time for the market to clear [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The price increase of pithead coal slowed down, and the market was in a stalemate. It is recommended to wait for a driving force [7] - Rebar: The futures price of rebar oscillated narrowly on Wednesday. The fundamental supply and demand weakened, but it is the traditional peak season in September. It is expected that the price will fall first and then rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7] - Glass: The supply and demand of glass improved, and the fundamentals were better than in July and August. It is recommended to take partial profits on the 01 long position and buy on dips [8] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The price of copper was affected by both macro and fundamental factors, with the short-term upward momentum insufficient and the overall high-level oscillation expected. It is recommended to hold or buy on dips for short-term trading [10][11] - Aluminum: The price of aluminum was supported by supply and demand, with the demand entering the peak season and the inventory approaching the inflection point. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long AD and short AL [11] - Nickel: The price of nickel was affected by macro and fundamental factors, with the short-term price affected by the macro environment and the long-term supply surplus continuing. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [15] - Tin: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was expected to recover. It is recommended for range trading and to pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand [17] - Silver and Gold: The price of silver and gold was supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical situation. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price correction [16][19] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply and demand of PVC were still weak, but the valuation was low, and it was recommended to pay attention to policy and cost disturbances. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 01 contract is recommended to watch the range of 4700 - 5000 [20][21] - Caustic Soda: The price of caustic soda was affected by factors such as warehouse receipts, supply, and demand. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is recommended to watch the range of 2530 - 2680 [21][22] - Styrene: The price of styrene was affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to watch the range of 6900 - 7200 [25] - Rubber: The price of rubber was affected by factors such as cost, inventory, and demand. It is expected to be strongly bullish in the short term, and it is recommended to watch the support level of 15600 [25][26] - Urea: The supply of urea decreased, and the demand was weak. The inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 1650 - 1700 for the 01 contract [27][28] - Methanol: The supply of methanol was stable, and the demand was expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to watch the range of 2350 - 2450 for the 01 contract [28] - Polyolefins: The demand for polyolefins improved, but the supply pressure of PP was large. It is expected that the LL主力合约 will oscillate in a range, and the PP will oscillate weakly. It is recommended to watch the range of 7200 - 7500 for the LL主力合约 and 6900 - 7200 for the PP [30] - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash was abundant, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global supply and demand of cotton improved, but the increase in new cotton production was expected to put pressure on the price. It is recommended to do a good job in hedging [34] - PTA: The inventory of PTA decreased recently, but the supply increased in the far month, and the oil price weakened. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to watch the range of 4600 - 4950 [35][36] - Apples: The price of early-ripening apples was firm, and it is expected to remain strongly bullish [36] - Red Dates: The consumption of red dates was weak, and the price was under pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Live Pigs: The supply of live pigs increased in September, and the price was under pressure in the long term. However, there was short-term rebound potential due to policy regulation and holiday demand. It is recommended to take rolling stop-profit on the 11 and 01 short positions and add short positions on rebounds [39] - Eggs: The demand for eggs was boosted by school openings and Mid-Autumn Festival preparations, and the supply pressure was relieved to some extent. However, the supply was still sufficient in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious about shorting the 12 and 01 contracts and watch for range trading [40] - Corn: The new corn was about to be listed, and the old corn inventory was relatively tight. It is recommended to pay attention to the listing time of the new corn and watch the 11 contract for range trading [43] - Soybean Meal: The price of soybean meal was affected by factors such as the US soybean supply and demand, domestic inventory, and cost. It is recommended to watch the support level of 3030 for the M2601 contract and pay attention to the USDA supply and demand report [46] - Oils: The price of oils was in a high-level correction, with the short-term support levels of 8200, 9200, and 9700 for the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil respectively. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage of the 11 - 01 contracts of rapeseed oil [46][51]
长江期货市场交易指引-20250911
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-11 02:27