中辉期货聚酯早报-20250911

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously Bearish [1] - L: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish Continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously Bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish Consolidation [3] - Soda Ash: Bearish Consolidation [3] Core Views - Crude oil prices are trending downward due to supply surplus despite a slight geopolitical boost. LPG follows the cost - side oil price rebound but has a bearish outlook. L and PP are in bearish consolidation with potential long - entry opportunities. PVC remains bearish with high inventory pressure. PX and PTA are cautiously bullish considering supply - demand and macro factors. Ethylene glycol, methanol, and urea are cautiously bearish due to supply - demand imbalances. Asphalt is bearish due to high valuation and weak cost. Glass and soda ash are in bearish consolidation with different supply - demand situations [1][2][3]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.73%, Brent up 1.66%, and SC up 0.56% [4]. - Basic Logic: Geopolitical events slightly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ plans to increase production in October, and the US consumption peak season is over, leading to inventory accumulation and reduced demand support. Prices may drop to around $60 in the long - term [5]. - Fundamentals: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October. US commercial crude and product inventories rose, and SPR inventory increased. China's crude imports in August were 49.492 million tons, with a 2.5% year - on - year increase in the cumulative imports from January to August [6]. - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC [7]. LPG - Market Performance: On September 10, the PG main contract closed at 4,437 yuan/ton, up 0.54% [10]. - Basic Logic: It rebounds following the oil price, but the upstream oil has a bearish outlook due to over - supply. The supply and demand situation shows a slight change in supply and relatively stable demand [11]. - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [12]. L - Market Performance: The L2601 contract closed at 7,229 yuan/ton [16]. - Basic Logic: North China's spot price is stable, and the basis strengthens slightly. Supply pressure will ease due to increased device maintenance, and demand is supported by the peak season of shed films [17]. - Strategy: Look for long - entry opportunities on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [7200 - 7300] for L [17]. PP - Market Performance: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,949 yuan/ton [21]. - Basic Logic: Spot prices stop falling and stabilize, and the basis strengthens. Supply may decrease due to planned device maintenance, while demand is entering the peak season, and cost is supported [21]. - Strategy: Look for long - entry opportunities on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [6900 - 7000] for PP [21]. PVC - Market Performance: The V2601 contract closed at 4,847 yuan/ton [25]. - Basic Logic: Warehouse receipts are accelerating registration, and the market is in a bearish situation with high inventory and weak demand. Export may be affected by policies [26]. - Strategy: Be cautious about short - selling. Focus on the range of [4750 - 4900] for V [26]. PX - Market Performance: On September 5, the PX spot price was 6,781 yuan/ton [29]. - Basic Logic: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing production, while demand is weak but expected to improve. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and macro factors are complex [29]. - Strategy: Close short positions and look for low - entry long opportunities. Focus on the range of [6740 - 6820] for PX511 [30]. PTA - Market Performance: On September 5, PTA in East China was 4,585 yuan/ton [32]. - Basic Logic: Supply is affected by device maintenance and new capacity, and demand shows signs of recovery. The supply - demand tight balance in September is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. TA processing fees are low [33]. - Strategy: Close short positions, look for low - entry long opportunities for TA, and opportunities to expand PTA processing fees. Focus on the range of [4670 - 4720] for TA01 [34]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On September 5, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,488 yuan/ton [36]. - Basic Logic: Domestic devices are slightly increasing production, and overseas devices change little. Demand is improving, but cost support is weakening. Inventory is relatively low [37]. - Strategy: Hold short positions and look for high - entry short opportunities. Focus on the range of [4285 - 4330] for EG01 [38]. Methanol - Market Performance: On September 5, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,310 yuan/ton [39]. - Basic Logic: Supply pressure increases due to the recovery of domestic and overseas devices. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is weakening [40]. - Strategy: Do not short actively. Look for low - entry long opportunities for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [2380 - 2410] for MA01 [41].