中辉有色观点-20250911

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Silver: ★★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Copper: ★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Zinc: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] - Lead: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] - Tin: ★, indicating a neutral position [1] - Aluminum: ★★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Nickel: ★, indicating a neutral position [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Polysilicon: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold: Hold long positions. Supported by short - to long - term factors such as interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical conflicts. Long - term strategic allocation is recommended. Be cautious of recession trading risks [1][3] - Silver: Hold long positions. High - level volatility in the short term. With strong demand and limited supply growth in the medium - to long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged. Pay attention to US dollar liquidity risks [1] - Copper: Hold long positions. The probability of a 50bp interest - rate cut by the Fed increases. With the arrival of the peak season and tight supply, long - term optimism is maintained [1][7] - Zinc: Wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. In the short term, more macro - and micro - level resonance is needed for further upward movement. In the long term, supply increases while demand decreases [1][10] - Lead: The price rebound is under pressure due to factors such as production recovery and weak downstream consumption [1] - Tin: The price stabilizes after a decline due to a weak supply - demand situation [1] - Aluminum: The price shows a strong upward trend. With the approaching peak season, demand recovers and supply is relatively stable [1][13] - Nickel: The price rebounds weakly. There is an oversupply of refined nickel and weak downstream consumption. Short - term profit - taking and waiting are recommended [1][17] - Industrial Silicon: The price shows a short - term upward trend due to news of energy - consumption restrictions [1] - Polysilicon: The price corrects from a high level. There are expectations of fundamental improvement and policy support. Short - term support is at 50,000 yuan [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. There is a strong game between long and short positions. The market is waiting for the market to stabilize [1][22] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - Market Review: Gold remains strong supported by interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical conflicts [2] - Basic Logic: US inflation pressure eases, interest - rate cut expectations increase; regional conflicts escalate; gold benefits from global monetary easing and geopolitical restructuring in the long term [3] - Strategy Recommendation: Adopt a long - position strategy in the short term. Gold should be continuously monitored if it fails to break through the high of 842. Silver may find support around 9630 [4] Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper consolidates at a high level, adjusting and accumulating strength [6] - Industrial Logic: Copper concentrate supply is tight. With the arrival of the peak season, demand recovers, and the overall supply - demand is in a tight balance [6] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions. Shanghai copper should focus on the range of [79,000, 82,000] yuan/ton, and LME copper on [9,900, 11,000] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc stops falling and rebounds [9] - Industrial Logic: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025. Domestic refinery maintenance increases in September, and inventory shows different trends at home and abroad. Demand is expected to improve in the peak season [9] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see for now, and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. Shanghai zinc should focus on the range of [22,000, 22,500] yuan/ton, and LME zinc on [2,700, 2,900] US dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices continue to rebound, and alumina stabilizes at a low level [12] - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, interest - rate cut expectations are obvious. Production increases slightly, and demand recovers in the peak season. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory accumulates [13] - Strategy Recommendation: Adopt a short - term long - position strategy for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20,000 - 21,200] yuan/ton [14] Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices rebound weakly, and stainless steel rebounds under pressure [16] - Industrial Logic: For nickel, there is an oversupply of refined nickel and weak downstream consumption. For stainless steel, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is gradually decreasing [17] - Strategy Recommendation: Adopt a short - term profit - taking and wait - and - see strategy, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. The main operating range of nickel is [120,000 - 122,000] yuan/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 opens low and goes high, falling more than 4% [20] - Industrial Logic: Supply shows an upward trend with a decreasing marginal increment. Demand shows peak - season characteristics, and inventory has been declining for four weeks. However, news of CATL's resumption of production affects market sentiment [21] - Strategy Recommendation: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, focusing on the range of [70,000 - 71,500] yuan/ton [22]