国海证券晨会纪要-20250911

Group 1: Market Overview - The primary market projects are progressing smoothly, while the secondary market yields continue to improve, indicating a positive trend in asset allocation [3][4] - The REITs index has seen an increase, with the market capitalization of public REITs reaching 219.17 billion yuan, reflecting a slight growth from the previous week [4] - The coal price has bottomed out, and with the current recovery in coal prices and low sector congestion, there are opportunities for bottom-fishing in the coal sector [19][26] Group 2: Company Performance - China Chemical - In the first half of 2025, China Chemical achieved operating revenue of 90.72 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.35% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.26% to 3.10 billion yuan [6][8] - The company signed new contracts worth 206.09 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.24% [8][9] - The company’s chemical engineering segment achieved revenue of 74.8 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 10.17%, reflecting a year-on-year increase [7] Group 3: Company Performance - Transsion Holdings - In the first half of 2025, Transsion Holdings reported revenue of 29.08 billion yuan, a decline of 15.86% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.21 billion yuan, down 57.48% [15][16] - The company’s gross margin for Q2 2025 improved to 20.76%, indicating a recovery trend despite a year-on-year decline [15][16] - Transsion holds a leading market share in Africa at 51% and is expanding its presence in Southeast Asia, with a market share of 18% [16][17] Group 4: Industry Analysis - Coal Sector - In the first half of 2025, the coal industry saw a significant decline in performance, with a total revenue of 553.91 billion yuan, down 17.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 72.28 billion yuan, down 31.5% [19][20] - The average sales price of coal decreased by 20% year-on-year, while the average sales cost fell by only 9%, leading to a decline in profitability [21][22] - The coal sector is expected to recover as prices have started to rebound, with the average price of port coal reaching 665 yuan per ton by early September 2025 [25][26] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the coal sector presents bottom-fishing opportunities due to low congestion and high dividend yields, with a recommendation to focus on companies like China Shenhua and Yancoal [26] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to create investment opportunities, with historical patterns indicating significant market movements around key planning milestones [29][30]