商品期货早班车-20250911

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market continues to oscillate at a high level, with the unexpected weakness of PPI further boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts. The logic of de - dollarization remains unchanged, and there are opportunities for long - positions in gold and short - term long - positions in silver [2]. - In the base metals market, copper prices have rebounded, and it is advisable to buy on dips; the electrolytic aluminum market is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips; the alumina market is expected to be oscillatingly weak, and it is advisable to wait and see; zinc and lead are suitable for range trading; industrial silicon is expected to oscillate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton; it is recommended to wait and see for lithium carbonate; polysilicon can focus on the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity; and it is advisable to buy on dips for tin [2][3][4]. - In the black industry, it is recommended to hold long - positions for rebar, wait and see for iron ore, and stop loss for short - positions in coking coal [5]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans and soybean meal are expected to oscillate; corn futures are expected to oscillate and decline; it is advisable to short futures and sell call options for sugar; it is recommended to buy on dips for cotton; wait and see for logs; palm oil is expected to be short - term weak; eggs are expected to be short - term strong in spot and oscillating in futures; and it is recommended to wait and see for pigs [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE and PP are expected to be short - term oscillating and long - term supply - demand to be loose, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts or conduct month - spread reverse spreads; methanol has a weak reality and strong expectation; it is advisable to short crude oil on rallies; and it is advisable to short far - month contracts or short styrene profit on rallies for styrene [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold: The market continues to oscillate at a high level. The US PPI in August was - 0.1% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3%. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond auction decreased significantly. Domestic gold ETF funds continued to flow in slightly. It is recommended to go long on gold [2]. - Silver: It followed gold's sharp rise. As it entered the US critical minerals list, it faces the threat of increased tariffs, with short - term long - position opportunities [2]. Base Metals - Copper: The price rebounded to above 80,000 yuan and $10,000. The supply of copper ore is tight, and it is advisable to buy on dips [2]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The price increased by 0.34% compared with the previous trading day. The supply is stable, and downstream consumption is recovering. It is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - Alumina: The price decreased by 2.43% compared with the previous trading day. The supply pressure is increasing, and it is expected to be oscillatingly weak. It is advisable to wait and see [2][3]. - Zinc: The price increased by 0.36% compared with the previous trading day. The supply is high, and the consumption peak season expectation has not been fulfilled. It is suitable for range trading and short - positions on rallies [3]. - Lead: The price decreased by 0.65% compared with the previous trading day. The supply is tightened, and the consumption is weak. It is suitable for range - bound trading [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The price rebounded. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving slightly. It is expected to oscillate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price decreased by 3.0%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is also increasing. It is recommended to wait and see due to uncertain market news [3]. - Polysilicon: The price increased slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand from the photovoltaic industry is uncertain. It can focus on the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [4]. - Tin: The price rose significantly. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is driven by the semiconductor industry. It is advisable to buy on dips [4]. Black Industry - Rebar: The price of the 2601 contract increased. The supply and demand of building materials are weakly neutral, and the plate demand is stable. It is recommended to hold long - positions [5]. - Iron Ore: The price of the 2601 contract increased. The supply and demand are neutrally strong, but the marginal situation is slightly weakening. It is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Coking Coal: The price of the 2601 contract increased. The supply and demand are weakening, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to stop loss for short - positions [5][6]. Agricultural Products Market - Soybeans and Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybeans are oscillating. The near - term US soybean production is shrinking, and the far - term South American production is expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. - Corn: The 2511 contract is weakly operating. The wheat price suppresses the corn price, and the new crop is expected to increase in production. The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [6]. - Sugar: The 01 contract increased slightly. The Brazilian sugar production is high, and the domestic syrup control is being relaxed. It is advisable to short futures and sell call options [6]. - Cotton: The US cotton price rebounded. The Brazilian cotton harvest progress is slightly behind, and the Indian cotton quality may be affected by weather. The domestic cotton price stopped falling and rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - Logs: The 11 contract increased slightly. The spot price is stable, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is advisable to wait and see [6][7]. - Palm Oil: The Malaysian palm oil price decreased. The supply is in the seasonal increase period, and the demand is decreasing. It is short - term weak [7]. - Eggs: The 2511 contract is weakly operating. The demand may increase seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. - Pigs: The 2511 contract rebounded slightly. The supply is abundant, and the consumption is gradually recovering. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - LLDPE: The price is oscillating slightly. The domestic supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. It is short - term oscillating, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts or conduct month - spread reverse spreads in the long - term [8]. - Methanol: The price increased by 0.38%. The cost is supported, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is not in the peak season. It has a weak reality and strong expectation [8][9]. - PP: The price is oscillating slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season. It is short - term oscillatingly weak, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts or conduct month - spread reverse spreads in the long - term [9]. - Crude Oil: The price strengthened slightly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening. It is advisable to short on rallies [9]. - Styrene: The price is oscillating slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is short - term oscillatingly weak, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts or short styrene profit on rallies in the long - term [10].