Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The current methanol price is oscillating at a low level, with limited upward momentum in the short - term due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland areas. However, considering the low spot price in East China and the approaching peak season for traditional downstream industries, it is recommended to wait and focus on subsequent long - position opportunities [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices): MA01 rose from 2398 yuan/ton to 2407 yuan/ton, a change of 9 yuan/ton (0.38%); MA05 rose from 2391 yuan/ton to 2409 yuan/ton, a change of 18 yuan/ton (0.75%); MA09 rose from 2247 yuan/ton to 2265 yuan/ton, a change of 18 yuan/ton (0.80%) [1] - Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Average): Prices in most regions increased slightly, such as in Shandong (from 2360 yuan/ton to 2390 yuan/ton, 1.27%), Guangdong (from 2275 yuan/ton to 2292.50 yuan/ton, 0.77%), etc. Some regions remained unchanged, like Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei [1] - Differences: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 6 yuan/ton [1] b) Cost and Profit Situation - Coal and Natural Gas Prices: Most coal and industrial natural gas prices remained stable, with only the price of Yulin Q6000 coal rising from 557.50 yuan/ton to 567.50 yuan/ton (1.79%) [1] - Methanol Production Profits: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 455.20 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 382 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream Profits: Profits of some downstream products changed, such as acetic acid rising from 441.65 yuan/ton to 456.15 yuan/ton (3.28%), formaldehyde rising from - 296.40 yuan/ton to - 286.40 yuan/ton (3.37%), while MTBE and diethylene glycol remained unchanged. The profits of Northwest MTO and East China MTO decreased, with Northwest MTO changing from 2 yuan/ton to - 13 yuan/ton (- 750.00%) and East China MTO changing from - 497.07 yuan/ton to - 527.57 yuan/ton (- 6.14%) [1] c) Trading Information - The domestic methanol futures main contract MA2601 oscillated upwards, opening at 2398 yuan/ton, closing at 2407 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 540,390 lots, and the open interest was 755,966 lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] d) Foreign Information - For far - month non - Iranian methanol shipments, the reference negotiation price is 253 - 264 US dollars/ton. For far - month methanol shipments from other Middle - East regions, the reference negotiation price is +0 - 0.6%, and recent transactions are at +0.2 - 0.5%. Some individuals are offering at +1%, but there is still a lack of active offers at fixed prices [1] e) Trading Strategy - Focus on opportunities to go long at low prices [1]
甲醇日评20250911:低位震荡,关注低多机会-20250911
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-11 03:25